"全球固定收益技术策略-2019年5月2日-全球固定收益与美国股票指数技术策略"

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《JP摩根-全球-投资策略-全球固定收益技术策略-52-21页.pdf》是一份全球固定收益技术策略的报告，发布日期为2019年5月2日。报告提到，国债的反弹虽然在受欢迎的阻力位反转，但仍需要突破战术支撑位来确认看跌趋势。这份报告由JP摩根的全球固定收益和美国股票指数技术策略师Jason Hunter和Alix Tepper Floman撰写。报告提到，2019年机构投资者全球固定收益投票正在进行中，并希望获得读者在美国技术分析、欧洲技术分析、亚洲技术分析和美国定量分析等类别的支持。该报告指出投票类别可在第19页找到。想要获取完整报告，请访问www.jpmorganmarkets.com。

Global

Fixed Income Strategy

Global Fixed Income Technical Strategist

02 May 2019

Jason Hunter

(1-212) 270-0034

jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.com

Chart 3: The 30-year bond whipsaws back into the 2.90s key inflection after holding channel trend

line support, now at 2.98%. Short-term resistance rests at 2.88%, and then the 2.815% Apr 1 gap.

30-year bond yield, weekly bars; %

Source: J.P. Morgan, CME, CQG

The 5-year note cheapens to key short-term support at 2.34% after rejecting favored

resistance that includes the 2.235% Apr 2 gap, 2.235% Mar 27 61.8% retrace, and

2.195% Apr 1 opening gap (Chart 4). That bearish reversal day keeps our negative

medium-term outlook on track. We believe a break through 2.34% could set the

market up for a sharp move back to the 2.42-2.435% Feb range yield lows and

2.43% Jan 61.8% retrace, the same levels that initially held in mid-Apr. We

ultimately think the belly will lead a yield rise through that support, but as noted

above, it will likely take additional data to validate the leading risk market moves

before that break unfolds. We are looking for Fives to eventually trade firmly back

into the first quarter range, and view a retest of the 2.57-2.63% range cheaps as a

high probability outcome.

Chart 4: The 5-year note rejects the 2.195-2.235% resistance zone with a bearish reversal day.

The market needs to clear 2.34% to confirm a short-term trend reversal. Initial medium-term

support rests at the 2.42-2.435% Feb range riches/Jan 61.8% retrace/Apr yield high.

5-year note yield, 240-minute bars; %

Source: J.P. Morgan, CQG

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