石油与天然气行业主要整装油企业股票回购增值能力调查报告

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The document titled "汇丰银行-全球-石油与天然气行业-主要整装油企业：股票回购的增值能力-523-35页.pdf" provides extensive information on the global oil and gas industry, with a specific focus on major integrated oil companies. The document delves into the value-adding capabilities of stock repurchases by these companies. Stock repurchases, also known as share buybacks, are a way for companies to reinvest in themselves by buying back their own shares from the open market. This can lead to an increase in the value of the remaining shares, as well as an improvement in key financial ratios such as earnings per share. The document explores the impact of stock repurchases on the overall performance and financial health of major integrated oil companies in the global market. It provides a comprehensive analysis of the benefits and risks associated with stock repurchases in the context of the oil and gas industry, taking into account the unique challenges and opportunities presented by this sector. By examining the financial data and performance metrics of these companies, the document aims to assess the effectiveness of stock repurchases as a value-adding strategy. Furthermore, the document titled "Disclosures" likely contains additional information related to the disclosures made by the companies in relation to their stock repurchase activities. This could include details about the timing, size, and purpose of the repurchases, as well as any relevant regulatory or legal considerations. Overall, these documents offer a valuable insight into the role of stock repurchases in adding value to major integrated oil companies in the global market. They shed light on the strategic importance of this financial tool in the context of the oil and gas industry, providing investors and stakeholders with a deeper understanding of its implications and potential impact on company performance.

Equities

●

Oil & Gas

23 May 2019



ENI: ENI announced the start of a share buyback programme earlier this year, but we

expect management to remain less aggressive than its UK and US peers on the scale of

buybacks. ENI’s current framework, which will be revised at the start of every year, points to

EUR800m of annual buybacks if Brent prices stay above USD65/b. We don’t expect much

growth in this figure as ENI’s leverage ratio (ND/E) is set to rise above its 20% ceiling after

closing of the ADNOC Refining acquisition in 3Q19 and shouldn’t fall below 20% before end

2020. Thereafter we assume only modest growth in buybacks up to EUR1bn in 2023e,

which would reduce ENI’s share count by 7% over the period 2018-23e and its leverage

ratio to single digits.



Equinor: although buybacks have been part of Equinor’s “toolbox” since early 2018, the

company did not start buybacks in 2019 but rather chose to increase its DPS meaningfully

(+13%). Management has not yet stated conditions that would trigger the start of buybacks, or

talked about their potential scale. We think buybacks could start in 2020, after the start-up of

Johan Sverdrup in late 2019. We see space for USD1.5bn pa of buybacks initially, rising by

USD0.5bn a year. This would reduce Equinor’s share count by 12% through 2023e. In the

absence of further acquisitions (which have averaged cUSD3-4bn pa over 2016-19), there is

space for more buybacks as gearing would fall to single digits, below Equinor’s target of 15-30%.



Exxon: although it has by far the highest free cash breakeven at present, we think Exxon

could recommence buybacks in 2020 if it makes material progress on its enlarged disposals

programme. Even with its heavy growth capex, if cash flow recovers as we expect, we see

Exxon having the capability to buy back stock at around USD10bn pa from 2021e, a scale

comparable to Shell. While Exxon doesn’t have the prospective free cash yield of Shell, it

has a lower dividend cost, and lower balance sheet gearing. This would reduce its share

count by ~12% over the period, leaving gearing at ~10% at end-2023e



Repsol: we believe accretive share buybacks will remain low in Repsol’s priorities in the next

few years, and in addition we see a far greater increase in capital spending than the peer group

average (albeit from a low base). As a result, although we assume only very limited accretive

buybacks (~USD0.5bn pa in 2021e-23e), we still see gearing (ND/CE) only around sector

average at 14% by end-2023e on our methodology (7% on the company’s methodology).



Shell: management’s USD25bn buyback target – to be achieved by end-2020 – was set as

part of the financial framework around the BG transaction in 2015. For much of the past few

years this has looked a stretch but a combination of much-improved cash flow and a successful

disposal programme now puts it within reach, with implied purchases of USD10-11bn this year

and next. We are increasingly comfortable that at USD70/b Brent, a similar rate of buybacks

should be sustainable too (see Global integrated oils: Raising RD Shell to Buy, lowering Exxon

to Hold, 13 May 2019). In our view Shell’s overriding financial priority is now a combination

between restarting DPS growth (static since 1Q14) and reducing the overall cost of the

dividend, which peaked recently at an annualised rate of nearly USD16bn. While this means

gearing may not fall as fast as for many of its peers, we see an ongoing USD10bn pa reducing

the overall dividend cost to <USD14bn pa by 2023e, even with ~2%pa DPS growth from

2020e, and reducing the share count by nearly 20% through 2018-23e.



Total: management committed to USD5bn of buybacks by end 2020. Following the

USD8.8bn acquisition of Anadarko’s African assets (see Total (Buy): Opportunistic deal

plays to Total’s strengths, 8 May 2019), we think it is unlikely that Total will raise this figure.

Gearing (ND/CE) is set to rise above the company’s self-imposed 20% ceiling (post IFRS

16) upon closing in late 2019 and should stay above this level for much of 2020. Having

said this, we don’t see any reason why buybacks couldn’t be extended beyond 2020 –

assuming of course no further large M&A deals. Our assumed buybacks of USD2-3bn

would reduce Total’s share count by 7% over 2018-23e and leave gearing at a manageable

13% by end 2023e.

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