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2020美赛特等奖F题论文
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2020美赛特等奖F题6篇论文,题目:Models for EDPs Relocation and Relative Policies
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Problem Chosen
F
2020
MCM/ICM
Summary Sheet
Team Control Number
2005623
The Wandering Homeland
Summary
Global warming has caused the rising of sea level, making the seawater flooded the land,
leaving some people homeless and becoming Environmentally Displaced Person (EDP). How-
ever, there is not a single unified policy for solving the EDP problem in the world. As the sea
level continues to rise, the land area of small island countries and some coastal countries is
decreasing, and the EDP problem is becoming increasingly urgent.
We analyse the Issue Paper and find the main problems in EDPs’ survival and cultural
protection. To address these problems, we propose a policy named ’the Wandering Homeland
Policy’.
According to the sea level rising data in recent years, with the land area and altitude data
from 4 countries, we use geometric knowledge to build a cone model to predict the annual
growth of EDP in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) over the next 50 years. Taking only
small island developing countries into consideration, there will be 18,230,968 EDPs worldwide
in the next 50 years to come. Then, we use Greenhouse Gas emission (GG), GDP per capita,
Arable Land per capita (AL), and Renewable Freshwater Resources (RFR) per capita as factors
to determine the receiving country and the receiving share. After that, we use the Entropy
Weight Method (EWM) to obtain the weights of these four indicators by Matlab, which is
[0.259 0.239 0.139 0.363], and get its scores of 50 countries. Then we identify 20 countries that
receive EDP and redistribute their proportion of recipients.
Based on the Lotka-Volterra Model, we build a competing model between local cultures
and foreign cultures, mapping the relationship between local and foreign cultures over time
and illustrate the need to implement a protection policy for EDPs’ culture.
We establish a model to estimate the economic impact of EDP on the receiving countries,
integrating the forecast data of EDP in the next 50 years, obtaining the income curve of each
receiving country in the next 50 years, and analysing the income and expenditure of countries
with different economic conditions. The results show that our policy is brilliant for the eco-
nomic development of developed countries, but not good for some of the developing countries.
Moreover, we analyse the results of our model and evaluate it objectively to help us im-
prove our policy. Combining with the actual situation, we explain the necessity and strengths
of implement our policy.
At the end of our paper, we make sensitivity analysis, the result of which proves that
our model has a good stability.
Keywords: Sea level rising, EDP, Policies, EWM, Lotka-Volterra Model.
Contents
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Literature Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Restatement of the Tasks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2 Analysis of the Issue Paper 2
2.1 The survival of the EDPs at risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
2.2 The risk of losing the EDPs’ own culture heritage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
3 The ’Wandering Homeland Policy’ on EDPs given by our team 4
3.1 Assumptions for the ’Wandering Homeland Policy’ . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
3.2 The statement of ’Wandering Homeland Policy’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
4 Notations 5
5 The Models 6
5.1 Model 1: The number of EDPs by Geometry math . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
5.2 Model 2: The distribution of EDPs of principal responsible countries
using the Entropy Weight Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
5.2.1 Our primary indicator system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
5.2.2 Calculate weights of each country by EWM . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
5.3 Model 3: The competing model between foreign culture native cultures
by the Lotka-Volterra model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
5.4 Model 4: The model of Economic Impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
5.5 Results of the Economic Benefit of EDPs in 20 received countries . . . . . 13
6 The Improvements and Weaknesses in our policies 15
7 The Importance and Strengths of implementing our policies 17
8 Sensitivity Analysis 18
9 Conclusion 18
References 20
Team # 2005623 Page 1 of 21
1 Introduction
1.1 Literature Review
Nowadays, many researchers have done researches which bring the miserable situ-
ation that the global environment has been facing during the past decades to us human
beings, who emphasize that the ecological system will be worse inevitably if we main-
tain our living behavior.
The word Environmentally Displaced Persons (EDP) is used to describe some peo-
ple whose homeland becomes uninhabitable due to some environmental stressors, for
example, the climate change[1]; or describe groups of persons who, for compelling rea-
sons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their
lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes either temporarily
or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad[2].
There are many researchers identifying some of the island nations being in the dan-
ger of sea levels rising. It is better for the EDPs to relocate their address to safer places
since their homeland is at the risk of being drowned by the ocean. However, there are
still many problems they will meet in future, such as being discriminated as refugees,
losing their own culture heritage, facing with difficulties in being received by groups
from different circumstances, and so on.
Fortunately, the United Nations High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR) has dis-
covered the dilemma the EDPs may meet. In a recent ruling during the last several
years[3], UNHCR has acknowledged that some of the EDPs can be recognized as
refugees. There are also many scholars who make presentations to a number of inter-
national policymaking fora, helping to raise the profile of these issues and to shape in-
ternational responses[4]. With receiving many assistance from politicians and scholars
all over the world, we are full of confidence that the problem of EDPs will be brought
to a satisfactory settlement in the upcoming years.
1.2 Restatement of the Tasks
In order to clarify our tasks, we simplify our team’s 5 tasks below:
Task 1 Analyze the scope of the Issue Paper from some necessary prospectives, such
as the number of people at risk, the risk of loss of EDPs’ own culture, and so
on.
Task 2 Give our team’s Proposed Policies, which address EDPs in terms of both hu-
man rights and cultural preservation.
Task 3 Develop Models to measure the potential impact of our proposed policies.
Task 4 Explain how our models work or improve our proposed policies.
Task 5 Demonstrate the importance of implementing our proposed policies backed by
our analysis in Task 1.
Team # 2005623 Page 2 of 21
2 Analysis of the Issue Paper
Since there are so many political problems appeared in the Issue Paper, our team
has analyzed the scope of the issue from the following prospectives to help us solving
the tough problems.
Figure 1: The mindmap of our issue analysis
2.1 The survival of the EDPs at risk
• Climate change has made damaged to the safety of EDPs. Due to the rapid
development of industry, most of the industrialized countries emit large amounts
of carbon emission in the form of CO2, making the greenhouse effect worse. At
the same time, the periodic changes of sea surface temperature lead to global
warming, which melts the sea ice and raises the sea levels, causing the land in
some areas being in salinization or flooded. This tragic event makes the land
unable to produce food, even losing the capability of dwelling for human, which
is the reason for these EDPs why they have to migrate to another place. Based
on this, we think that carbon emissions are an important factor in measuring the
amount of EDPs received by a country.
Figure 2: Heights above sea level vary across cities. Source[5]: IPCC, NASA, Realclimate.org,
NewScientist.com, Potsdam institute, Sea Level Explorer.
Team # 2005623 Page 3 of 21
• The conditions of the receiving country may not meet the basic survival re-
quirements of the EDPs. As a human being, an EDP has his or her own basic
survival needs, for example, getting enough food to sustain his or her life. The
carrying capacity of human beings in an environment is the maximum popu-
lation size that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habi-
tat, water, and other necessities available in the environment using the local or
other resources and intellectual and technical conditions[6]. When considering
the number of EDPs a country can receive, not only do we need to consider its
carbon emissions to determine how much responsibility it should take for its EDP
receiving country, but also need to think of its carrying capacity.
• It is necessary to make plans for the migration process of the EDPs on a time
scale. Depending on the different geography of each country, the scope of the
effects of sea-level rising and other environmental stresses is in connection with
the time. For example, the situation of EDPs is often not formed in a short time,
but gradually formed in the face of continuous climate changes. Therefore, it is
necessary to make some plans on the time scale to avoid or minimize the loss of
the countries (e.g. the problem of the EDPs) caused by climate change.
2.2 The risk of losing the EDPs’ own culture heritage
• Different types of cultural heritage may suffer different levels of losses. Cul-
tural heritage includes tangible culture, intangible culture (e.g. folklore, tradi-
tions, language, and knowledge) and natural heritage (including culturally sig-
nificant landscapes, and biodiversity), and the tangible cultural heritage is gener-
ally split into two groups of movable (e.g.books, documents, moveable artworks,
machines and clothing) and immovable heritage (e.g. historical buildings, monu-
ments, landscapes and artifacts)[7]. In the process of the sea level rise, the loss of
these categories of cultural heritage is obviously different, due to their inherent
property.
• We endeavor to protect the cultural heritage of the EDPs under the premise of
ensuring to house the EDPs. Since the cultural heritage is the precious wealth
of human civilization, our human beings are obliged to preserve that the culture
will not be lost by migration. Just like the menu costs in economic principles.
If a manufacturer changes the price of their products, he needs to inform his
customers of the new price and give a suitable reason for this change. All this
incurs a new cost. If the EDPs migrate to a new place, they need to spend a cost
to settle down, learn to adapt to the new environment and new social norms.
In conclusion, we need to carefully consider various factors to make a decision
where the EDPs will immigrate.
• The EDPs has spiritual needs besides living requirements. As they come from
their own country, they have basic cultural demands, such as preserving or in-
herit their previous culture and religious beliefs, living a normal life in the new
society without discrimination. As a result, it is significant to consider and assess
the social stability, cultural diversity and nationalist orientation of the received
country, which may lead to some injury to the EDPs.
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