统计学在工程与科研中的应用：Engineers and Scientists的统计学导论

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"《Statistics for Engineers and Scientists》是威廉·纳维迪编著的第三版统计学教材，专为工程和科研领域的从业者设计，详细阐述了统计学在这些领域中的应用。" 本书深入浅出地介绍了统计学的基础概念和方法，旨在帮助工程师和科研工作者理解和运用统计学工具进行数据分析和决策。作为一本面向实践的教材，它涵盖了概率论、抽样分布、假设检验、回归分析、方差分析、时间序列分析等多个关键主题。 1. **概率论**：书中的概率论部分讲述了概率的基本概念，如古典概率、条件概率、独立事件、贝叶斯定理等，这些都是理解和应用统计学的基础。通过这些理论，读者能够评估不确定性的事件发生的可能性。 2. **抽样分布**：书中详细讲解了抽样分布的性质，如中心极限定理，这对于理解大样本统计量的分布至关重要。中心极限定理说明了当样本大小足够大时，样本均值的分布接近正态分布，这在实际研究中用于估计总体参数和构建置信区间。 3. **假设检验**：这部分内容介绍了如何建立零假设和备择假设，以及如何使用Z检验、t检验、卡方检验和F检验等来判断数据是否支持或否定这些假设。这些测试方法在科研工作中用于验证假设和结论的合理性。 4. **回归分析**：书中涵盖了线性回归和多元回归分析，这是预测和建模的重要工具。通过回归模型，可以研究自变量与因变量之间的关系，并预测未知值。 5. **方差分析(ANOVA)**：ANOVA用于比较多个组间的均值差异，对于实验设计和分析实验结果非常有用。书中会介绍单因素ANOVA和多因素ANOVA的应用。 6. **时间序列分析**：针对具有时间序列数据的分析，本书介绍了趋势分析、季节性分析和自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)等，这些方法常用于经济预测、工程监控等领域。此外，书中可能还包含实际案例研究、习题和辅助学习资源，以帮助读者将理论知识应用于实际问题中。无论是在产品研发、质量控制还是科学研究，这本书都是一个宝贵的参考资料，能提升工程师和科学家对统计学的理解和应用能力。

Chapter 7 covers correlation and simple linear regression. I have worked hard to

emphasize that linear models are appropriate only when the relationship between the

variables is linear. This point is all the more important since it is often overlooked in

practice by engineers and scientists (not to mention statisticians). It is not hard to find

in the scientific literature straight-line fits and correlation coefficient summaries for

plots that show obvious curvature or for which the slope of the line is determined by

a few influential points. Therefore this chapter includes a lengthy section on checking

model assumptions and transforming variables.

Chapter 8 covers multiple regression. Model selection methods are given particular

emphasis, because choosing the variables to include in a model is an essential step in

many real-life analyses. The topic of confounding is given careful treatment as well.

Chapter 9 discusses some commonly used experimental designs and the methods

by which their data are analyzed. One-way and two-way analysis of variance meth-

ods, along with randomized complete block designs and 2

factorial designs, are cov-

ered fairly extensively.

Chapter 10 presents the topic of statistical quality control, discussing control charts,

CUSUM charts, and process capability; and concluding with a brief discussion of six-

sigma quality.

NEW FOR THIS EDITION

The third edition of this book is intended to extend the strengths of the second. Some

of the changes are:

• More than 250 new exercises have been included, many of which involve real data

from recently published sources.

• A new section on prediction intervals and tolerance intervals has been added to

Chapter 5.

• The material on pooled variance methods has been completely revised.

• The discussion of the effect of outliers on the correlation coefficient has been

amplified.

• Chapter 1 now contains a discussion of controlled experiments and observational

studies.

• Chapter 7 now contains a discussion of confounding in controlled experiments.

• The exposition has been improved in a number of places.

RECOMMENDED COVERAGE

The book contains enough material for a year-long course. For a one-semester course,

there are a number of options. In our three-hour course at the Colorado School of

Mines, we cover all of the first four chapters, except for joint distributions, the more

theoretical aspects of point estimation, and the exponential, gamma, and Weibull dis-

tributions. We then cover the material on confidence intervals and hypothesis testing

Preface xv

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in Chapters 5 and 6, going quickly over the two-sample methods and power calcula-

tions and omitting distribution-free methods and the chi-square and F tests. We finish

by covering as much of the material on correlation and simple linear regression in

Chapter 7 as time permits.

A course with a somewhat different emphasis can be fashioned by including more

material on probability, spending more time on two-sample methods and power, and

reducing coverage of propagation of error, simulation, or regression. Many other

options are available; for example, one may choose to include material on factorial

experiments in place of some of the preceding topics. Sample syllabi, emphasizing a

variety of approaches and course lengths, can be found on the book website

www.mhhe.com/navidi.

McGRAW-HILL CONNECT ENGINEERING

The online resources for this edition include McGraw-Hill Connect Engineering, a

web-based assignment and assessment platform that can help students to perform

better in their coursework and to master important concepts. With Connect Engineer-

ing, instructors can deliver assignments, quizzes, and tests easily online. Students can

practice important skills at their own pace and on their own schedule.

In addition, the website for Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, 3e, features data

sets for students, as well as solutions, PowerPoint lecture notes for each chapter, an

image library, and suggested syllabi for instructors. The website can be accessed at

www.mhhe.com/navidi.

ELECTRONIC TEXTBOOK OPTION

This text may be purchased in electronic form through an online resource know as

CourseSmart. Students can access the complete text online through their browsers at

approximately one-half the cost of a traditional text. In addition, purchasing the

eTextbook allows students to use CourseSmart’s web tools, which include full text

search, notes, and highlighting, and email tools for sharing notes among classmates.

More information can be found at www.CourseSmart.com.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I am indebted to many people for contributions at every stage of development. I

received valuable suggestions from my colleagues Barbara Moskal, Gus Greivel,

Ashlyn Munson, and Melissa Laeser at the Colorado School of Mines. Mike Colagrosso

developed some excellent applets, and Jessica Kohlschmidt developed PowerPoint

slides to supplement the text. I am particularly grateful to Jackie Miller of The Ohio

State University, who has corrected many errors and made many valuable suggestions

for improvement.

The staff at McGraw-Hill has been extremely capable and supportive. In particular, I

would like to express my thanks to Developmental Editor Lora Neyens and Sponsoring

Editor Debra Hash for their patience and guidance in the preparation of this edition.

William Navidi

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