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首页汇丰银行报告:全球石油天然气业困境:价值洼地还是陷阱?
汇丰银行报告:全球石油天然气业困境:价值洼地还是陷阱?
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更新于2024-06-22
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本报告由汇丰银行(HSBC Bank plc)发布,标题聚焦于全球石油与天然气行业的整装油市场——“价值还是价值陷阱?”,探讨了87-45页的内容。报告的核心观点包括以下几个方面: 1. 修正估计与市场前景:研究团队对2020年中期的国际油价目标(IMO2020)进行了适度调整,主要基于预期的市场需求疲软以及持续低位的天然气价格。这可能导致整体下游利润率的下滑。 2. 石油行业表现:尽管石油行业整体表现落后,但在2019年末至2020年初的宏观经济环境改善有望提振业绩和行业情绪。分析师重申对BP、ENI、EQNR、REP、TOT和RDSA/B等公司的买入评级。 3. 基本面与估值吸引力:尽管基本面稳健,报告认为鉴于坚实的财务表现,整个石油与天然气行业的估值具有吸引力。预计到2023年,平均自由现金流收益率可达约11%,在油价为70美元/桶时超过8%(在60美元/桶时更高),这将为股息支付提供强大支持,并可能推动广泛的持续回购活动,实现8-9%的分配收益率。 4. 潜在的价值陷阱:尽管前景乐观,但市场对石油行业的态度仍受需求不确定性的影响,尤其是由于经济前景弱化。此外,整合石油公司的价值增长过程相对缓慢,这使得投资者在评估投资价值时需谨慎对待。 总结来说,这份报告在分析行业基本面的同时,提出了关于当前市场估值是否为真实价值还是隐藏风险的质疑。投资者应综合考虑宏观经济环境、公司业绩预期以及市场情绪,来判断这些整装油企业在当前形势下的投资价值。
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Equities
● Oil & Gas
7 August 2019
8
Risks around the energy transition are always in the background. We think we have
good visibility over the sector’s growth and returns outlook for the next several years.
However, we detect a slow but steady rise in investors’ concerns around their longer term
deployment of capital in response to the energy transition. This is not just a climate-related
concern, but also that prospective returns could come under longer-term pressure from
such a capital redeployment, potentially threatening the viability of cash distributions.
European and US Integrated Oils: performance vs domestic market, past two years
Source: Bloomberg
European oils DY vs market (inverted) vs Free Cash margin (Brent price minus sector
FCF breakeven), in USD/b
Source: Refinitiv Datastream, Bloomberg, company reports, HSBC estimates
European oils P/CF relative to market vs Free Cash margin, in USD/b
Source: Refinitiv Datastream, Bloomberg, company reports, HSBC estimates
40
50
60
70
80
90
80
90
100
110
120
130
Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19
Europe Integrated Oils vs Mkt US Integrated Oils vs Mkt Global oils vs mkt Brent crude, USD (RHS)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
8080%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
220%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Yield relative (Oil vs Euro market) Free cash margin (Brent minus FCF b/even, USD/b, RHS)
self funding
free cash negative
e e e
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
EU oils 2yr fwd P/CF relative to mkt (LHS) Free cash Margin (Brent minus FCF b/even, USD/b, RHS)
self funding
free cash negative
e e e
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88108405/bg9.jpg)
9
Equities
● Oil & Gas
7 August 2019
The sector has plenty going for it….
While the sector has all the appearance of a value trap judging from its recent performance, it’s
worth remembering how strong its underlying fundamentals are:
Stable FC breakevens: The sector’s organic free cash break-even has broadly halved in
the past 5-6 years to the mid-USD50/b on average. While we don’t expect break-evens to
improve much more from here (and capex is likely to trend gradually up), we also see
further gains – especially from digitalisation – which should prevent it rising other than very
slowly. While company outlays on M&A aren’t included in these figures, we would expect
them to be offset by disposal proceeds to a greater or lesser extent.
On our estimates these low break-evens translate into very attractive free cash yields on
the stocks. At USD70/b Brent we estimate the sector’s 2020-23e average free cash yield at
nearly 11% (post IFRS 16) or nearly 10% (pre IFRS 16). Even at USD60/b, we calculate it
at around 8% (8-9% for the Europeans).
Cash distributions: With balance sheet gearing around target levels in most cases, we
see no reason for the majority of this cash flow not to be distributed to shareholders in the
coming years. For the European oils this translates into an average 2021e distribution yield
of around 9% (>6.5% dividend yield and 2-3% buyback yield), while on the US names it is
around 7%. Leading the pack on our estimates are BP and Shell, both with the potential to
distribute over 10% of market cap. For more detail see Major integrated oils: The accretive
power of share buybacks (23 May 2018).
Shrinking share counts: Over time, this level of buybacks can make a significant impact
on the companies’ share count. This is most evident in our forecasts for Shell, where we
see the share count falling by nearly 20% over the period 2018-23e, partly because of what
we think is a strategic imperative to reduce the total dividend cost.
Beyond the issue of distributing free cash, it’s important to note two important underlying
trends: 1) their businesses are growing – on average, upstream volumes are set to grow
by 2-3%pa in the next few years and in most cases, new volumes are cash flow accretive.
On top of this, we see strong downstream growth drivers across various aspects of the
industry, notably in marketing and petrochemicals; 2) returns on capital are also
improving – we see the sector average ROACE recovering from low single digits in 2015-
17 and ~9% in 2018 to 10-11% by 2021e.
Decent per-share growth: As well as top-line growth, share buybacks could have a
meaningful positive effect on per-share metrics over time. One way to illustrate this is
shown opposite in company production volumes. While we see top-line production volumes
growing by 2-3% pa in the five years to 2024e, on a per-share basis the accretive effect of
buybacks boosts this growth to an average of more than 5% pa.
Macro to improve in late 2019/early 2020: On a 12-month trailing basis the sector’s cash
generation has improved by ~80% since its 2016 trough, and has been remarkably stable in
aggregate for the past three quarters. However, we still haven’t seen the macroeconomic
backdrop firing on all cylinders. Company results have been hampered in turn by extremely
weak refining margins and natural gas prices, and persistent petrochemicals margin
weakness. We think there is a chance that there is more of a confluence of positive macro
drivers in late-‘19/early-’20. Despite a weakened demand outlook for oil, we expect falling
inventories to tighten the market between now and year-end. Natural gas prices will most
likely get a seasonal uplift as we approach the Northern Hemisphere winter, while the effect
of IMO 2020 is set to be felt in refining margins in the next 6 months or so.
High FCF yields leaves room
for distribution yields of 8-9%
by 2020-21e
Attractive per-share accretion
thanks to buybacks
Confluence of positive macro
factors in late 2019/early ’20
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