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首页2019年JP摩根北美能源基础设施公司股票评级与价目标
2019年JP摩根北美能源基础设施公司股票评级与价目标
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更新于2024-06-22
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这份文档是JP摩根在2019年3月22日发布的关于北美能源基础设施公司的股票评级与价格目标的研究报告,主要关注的是美国股市中的能源行业。报告涵盖了多家公司在该领域的表现,包括Cheniere Energy, Kinder Morgan, Macquarie Infrastructure Corporation, ONEOK, Plains GP Holdings, Plains All American Pipeline, Targa Resources Corp., The Williams Companies, 和Enbridge Inc., 及Gibson Energy Inc.。
1. **公司概述:** 报告列出了一系列北美能源基础设施公司的关键信息,如市值(Market Cap)、股票代码(Ticker)以及当前股价(Price)。这些公司涉及天然气生产(Cheniere Energy)、管道运营商(如Plains All American Pipeline和Enbridge)、以及能源基础设施集团(如Kinder Morgan和Macquarie Infrastructure Corporation)等。
2. **评级和价格目标(Rating and Price Targets):** 报告对每家公司进行了评级,如“OW”代表Outperform(优于大市),表明分析师认为这些股票的表现将优于整体市场;“N”则可能表示Neutral(中性),即认为股票表现与市场平均水平相当或无明显倾向。价格目标列出了分析师对未来股价的预测,如Cheniere Energy的目标价从86.00美元下降到未公开(n/c)。
3. **股价变动:** 报告还提供了过去一段时间(如截至2019年12月)的股价历史,如Kinder Morgan的股价从21.00美元下降到20.42美元,反映了市场动态和投资者预期。
4. **货币单位:** 除Enbridge Inc.的股价以加拿大元(CAD)计价外,其余公司的股价都以美元(USD)为基准,这体现了全球能源市场的国际化特征。
5. **北美能源基础设施市场:** 通过这些数据,读者可以了解到当时北美能源基础设施市场的整体健康状况、竞争格局以及分析师对行业前景的看法。这份报告对于投资者、分析师和市场参与者来说,是一份重要的参考材料,有助于他们做出投资决策。
总结来说,这份报告是金融专业人员分析北美能源基础设施公司股票价值的重要工具,包含了市场估值、评级和价格预测等关键信息,对理解能源行业的市场动态和投资策略具有重要意义。
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88108294/bg10.jpg)
16
North America
Equity Research
22 March 2019
Jeremy Tonet, CFA
(1-212) 622-4915
jeremy.b.tonet@jpmorgan.com
LNG Income Statement
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates
Consolidated Income Statement
2017A 1Q18A 2Q18A 3Q18A 4Q18A 2018A 1Q19E 2Q19E 3Q19E 4Q19E 2019E 2020E
Sabine Pass Terminal
639 653 835 837 2,964 3,320
Corpus Christi Terminal
1 8 166 174 349 1,150
Marketing
102 225 110 280 717 819
Segment Adjusted Margin
2,510 1,101 735 786 845 3,467 752 896 1,121 1,301 4,070 5,288
Operating Expense
(446) (140) (147) (170) (156) (613) (178) (216) (257) (284) (935) (1,144)
SG&A, Development
(238) (54) (57) (54) (55) (220) (61) (62) (52) (56) (230) (228)
Other
(7) - - 7 - 7 - - - - - -
Adjusted EBITDA
1,819 907 531 569 634 2,641 513 618 812 961 2,904 3,916
D&A
(356) (109) (111) (113) (116) (449) (160) (191) (194) (197) (742) (784)
Interest
(747) (216) (216) (221) (222) (875) (298) (398) (425) (376) (1,498) (1,351)
Other income
18 7 10 15 16 48 - - - - - -
Taxes
(3) (15) 3 (3) (12) (27) - - - - - -
Adjusted Net Income
731 574 217 247 300 1,338 55 28 193 387 664 1,781
Adjustments, NCI
(1,124) (217) (235) (182) (233) (867) (132) (150) (205) (221) (709) (922)
GAAP Net Income - Controlling Shareholders
(393) 357 (18) 65 67 471 (77) (122) (12) 167 (45) 859
Diluted Shares (average)
233 238 243 250 258 246 257 257 257 257 257 279
Adj. EPS
-$4.19 $1.39 $0.20 $0.34 $0.56 $2.49 -$0.23 -$0.40 $0.03 $0.72 $0.12 $3.34
GAAP EPS
-$1.69 $1.50 -$0.07 $0.26 $0.26 $1.95 -$0.30 -$0.48 -$0.05 $0.65 -$0.17 $3.07
Distributable Cash Flow (Top-Down Method, As Reported)
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA
1,819 907 531 569 634 2,641 513 618 812 961 2,904 3,916
CQP/CQH distributions to NCI owners
(303) (152) (145) (150) (141) (588) (149) (149) (149) (149) (594) (611)
CQP/SPL cash interest
(614) (185) (184) (183) (181) (733) (211) (235) (235) (235) (916) (874)
LNG cash interest
(133) (31) (32) (38) (41) (142) (87) (164) (190) (141) (582) (477)
Consolidated cash taxes
(3) (15) 3 (3) (12) (27) - - - - - -
Other
- - - - - - - - - - - -
LNG Distributable Cash Flow (JPM Calc)
766 524 173 195 259 1,151 66 71 238 436 811 1,954
LNG Distributable Cash Flow Per Share (JPM Calc)
3.28$ 2.20$ 0.71$ 0.78$ 1.00$ 4.69$ 0.26$ 0.28$ 0.93$ 1.70$ 3.16$ 7.01$
Distributable Cash Flow (Bottom-Up Method, JPMe)
Div idends from CQH/CQP
192 98 119 124 124 464 149 149 149 149 595 612
Distributions from CQP IDRs/GP stake
9 11 13 16 18 59 23 23 23 23 91 102
Management fees from CQP
91 20 19 21 22 82 30 31 19 24 104 97
Distributions from subsidiaries
291 129 151 160 164 605 202 203 190 195 790 811
CCL third party take or pay fees
- - - - - - - - 156 156 312 1,085
CCL procurment margin
- - - - - - 1 8 10 18 37 65
CCL opex
- - - - - - (16) (47) (68) (95) (226) (378)
CCL Adj. EBITDA
- - - - - - (15) (39) 98 80 123 772
CMI profits, net of payments to SPL (excl. procurement related to CMI)
- - - - - - 44 115 70 206 435 488
LNG-Only G&A, Development, corp opex
(135) (29) (31) (29) (34) (123) (39) (42) (22) (34) (136) (119)
Other expenses (Midship, etc)
- - - - - - - - - - - -
LNG Standalone Adjusted EBITDA
156 100 120 131 130 482 191 237 336 447 1,212 1,952
Standalone cash interest
(133) (31) (32) (38) (41) (142) (87) (164) (190) (141) (582) (477)
Standalone taxes
(3) (15) 3 (3) (12) (27) - - - - - -
Other
- - - - - - - - - - - -
LNG Standalone DCF
20 54 91 90 77 313 104 73 147 306 630 1,475
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88108294/bg11.jpg)
17
North America
Equity Research
22 March 2019
Jeremy Tonet, CFA
(1-212) 622-4915
jeremy.b.tonet@jpmorgan.com
LNG Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates
Balance Sheet
2017A 1Q18A 2Q18A 3Q18A 4Q18A 2018A 1Q19E 2Q19E 3Q19E 4Q19E 2019E 2020E
Cash & Cash Equivalents
2,602 2,411 3,260 2,932 3,156 3,156 698 762 1,587 633 633 122
Other Current Assets
767 857 706 738 1,078 1,078 1,078 1,078 1,078 1,078 1,078 1,078
Total Current Assets
3,369 3,268 3,966 3,670 4,234 4,234 1,776 1,840 2,665 1,711 1,711 1,200
Net PPE
23,978 24,474 25,760 26,499 27,245 27,245 28,173 29,001 29,076 29,304 29,304 29,945
Other Assets
559 599 601 571 508 508 508 508 508 508 508 508
Total Assets
27,906 28,341 30,327 30,740 31,987 31,987 30,457 31,348 32,249 31,523 31,523 31,653
Current Debt
- - 137 66 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239
Other Current Liabilities
1,251 895 1,591 1,284 1,503 1,503 1,503 1,503 1,503 1,503 1,503 1,503
Total Current Liabilities
1,251 895 1,728 1,350 1,742 1,742 1,742 1,742 1,742 1,742 1,742 1,742
Long-Term Debt
25,336 25,656 26,782 27,438 28,179 28,179 26,111 26,565 27,155 25,924 25,924 22,845
Other Long-Term Liabilities
79 83 83 121 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 137
Total Liabilities
26,666 26,634 28,593 28,909 30,058 30,058 27,990 28,444 29,034 27,803 27,803 24,724
Total Shareholders' Equity
1,240 1,707 1,734 1,831 1,929 1,929 2,467 2,904 3,215 3,720 3,720 6,929
Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
27,906 28,341 30,327 30,740 31,987 31,987 30,457 31,348 32,249 31,523 31,523 31,653
Cash Flow Statement
Net Income
563 600 150 227 223 1,200 36 9 174 368 588 1,705
DD&A
356 109 111 113 116 449 160 191 194 197 742 784
Other Non-Cash Items
312 (240) 252 182 147 341 62 63 22 23 171 60
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities
1,231 469 513 522 486 1,990 258 264 390 588 1,501 2,549
Capex
(3,357) (776) (732) (1,204) (931) (3,643) (1,088) (1,019) (269) (425) (2,801) (1,425)
Acquisitions
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Other
(24) - 16 (26) (1) (11) - - - - - -
Net Cash Used in Investing Activities
(3,381) (776) (716) (1,230) (932) (3,654) (1,088) (1,019) (269) (425) (2,801) (1,425)
Debt, Net
3,133 265 1,207 533 823 2,828 (1,487) 967 853 (968) (635) (2,279)
Equity, Net
- - - - - - - - - - - 1,251
Distribution
(185) (143) (145) (147) (141) (576) (141) (149) (149) (149) (587) (607)
Other
(12) (6) (10) (17) (12) (45) - - - - - -
Net Cash Provided by Financing Activities
2,936 116 1,052 369 670 2,207 (1,629) 819 704 (1,117) (1,223) (1,635)
Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash & Equivalents
786 (191) 849 (339) 224 543 (2,458) 63 826 (955) (2,523) (511)
Cash & Equiv alents, Beginning of Period
3,037 2,613 2,422 3,271 2,932 2,613 3,156 698 762 1,587 3,156 633
Cash & Equivalents, End of Period
2,602 2,422 3,271 2,932 3,156 3,156 698 762 1,587 633 633 122
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88108294/bg12.jpg)
18
North America
Equity Research
22 March 2019
Jeremy Tonet, CFA
(1-212) 622-4915
jeremy.b.tonet@jpmorgan.com
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)
Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (Neutral; Price Target: $46.00)
Investment Thesis
CQP offers stable yield and relatively lowest risk, with the distribution potentially
increasing to $3/unit or more after SPL Trains 1-5 reach completion. Moreover,
SPL’s favorable position on the global cost curve and cash flow visibility underlie
the thesis, with ~87% of capacity backed by 20-year fixed contracts with high-
quality global LNG players. However, CQP has notably outperformed both the AMZ
and CEI. While several catalysts remain at CQP, such as an SPL6 FID and bringing
trains online quicker than expected, we view these events as largely priced in at these
levels. As such, while we look favorably upon CQP’s business profile, we see greater
total return potential in LNG at this time.
Valuation
We base our Dec 2019 price target on a discounted cash flow methodology in which
we forecast DCF/LP unit and then calculate a terminal value. The terminal growth
rate and required rate of return are based on leverage/liquidity risk, distribution
coverage outlook, volumetric/recontracting risk, commodity/marketing risk, take-or-
pay contract profile, and other factors.
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates
Risks to Rating and Price Target
Risks to CQP: Counterparty risk should customers fail to meet commitments.
Financial strategy dependent on project completion, leverage and refinancing risk,
depressed LNG markets reducing utilization of uncontracted capacity, re-marketing
gas in the event of low terminal utilization, complicated partnership structure may
dissuade some investors, and terminal value risks. Upside risks include greater than
expected SPL expansion.
Discounted Cash Flow 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2041E
Discount Periods - 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 22.00
DCF/LP Unit 3.02$ 3.60$ 3.30$ 3.29$ 3.45$ 3.95$ 3.96$ 4.04$ 4.09$ 4.06$ 4.13$ 4.13$
YoY DCF/LP Unit Growth -8.5% -0.1% 4.7% 14.4% 0.3% 2.1% 1.1% -0.8% 1.9% 0.0%
Total Distribution Coverage Ratio 1.27x 1.51x 1.16x 1.16x 1.24x 1.22x 1.22x 1.26x 1.28x 1.27x 1.30x 1.20x
Terminal Value of DCF/LP Unit 41.35$
Total Cash Flow s Available to Equity 0.88$ 3.60$ 3.30$ 3.29$ 3.45$ 3.95$ 3.96$ 4.04$ 4.09$ 4.06$ 4.13$ 45.48$
PV of Cash Flows Available to Equity 0.88$ 3.32$ 2.80$ 2.58$ 2.49$ 2.62$ 2.43$ 2.28$ 2.13$ 1.95$ 1.83$ 7.56$
DCF Price Target Methodology
PV of DCF/LP Unit 38.74$
PV of Terminal Value 6.87$
2019 YE PT 46.00$
Assumptions
Terminal Yield 10.00%
Discount Rate 8.50%
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88108294/bg13.jpg)
19
North America
Equity Research
22 March 2019
Jeremy Tonet, CFA
(1-212) 622-4915
jeremy.b.tonet@jpmorgan.com
Neutral
Company Data
Shares O/S (mn) 484
52-week range ($) 45.27-27.79
Market cap ($ mn) 21,092.72
Exchange rate 1.00
Free float(%) 11.7%
3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 0.31
3M - Avg daily val ($
mn)
12.6
Volatility (90 Day) 32
Index
RUSSELL
2000
BBG BUY|HOLD|SELL 6|11|2
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP;CQP US)
Year-end Dec ($)
FY17A
FY18A
FY19E
FY20E
Adj. EBITDA ($ mn) 1,512 2,517 2,554 2,890
EBITDA growth 313.7% 66.5% 1.5% 13.2%
EV/LPs EBITDA 21.0 16.2 15.9 14.2
Grossed-up EV/EBITDA 20.6 15.4 14.8 13.1
Debt/EBITDA 10.6 6.4 6.3 5.6
DCF/LP unit ($) 2.75 3.24 3.02 3.60
Price/LP's DCF 15.9 13.4 14.4 12.1
Distribution per unit ($) 1.79 2.28 2.48 2.55
Distribution coverage 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.5
Distribution yield - - - -
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
CQP Income Statement
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates
Income Statement
2017A 1Q18A 2Q18A 3Q18A 4Q18A 2018A 1Q19E 2Q19E 3Q19E 4Q19E 2019E 2020E
Liquefaction - Take-or-pay revenue from third party SPAs
- - - - - - 539 546 726 727 2,539 2,892
Liquefaction - Use-based procurement margin for third party SPAs
- - - - - - 28 28 38 39 134 143
Liquefaction - CMI usage fees
- - - - - - 58 110 40 74 282 331
Liquefaction - Use-based procurement margin for CMI volumes
- - - - - - 7 13 5 5 31 24
Liquefaction Gross Margin (adjusts for MTM)
1,721 727 636 703 771 2,837 632 698 809 845 2,985 3,390
Regas - Fees (Mostly Take-or-Pay)
260 65 65 66 65 261 65 65 65 65 261 261
Sabine Pass Adjusted Gross Margin
2,001 802 710 778 847 3,137 707 773 884 920 3,285 3,670
O&M
(392) (121) (128) (144) (133) (526) (140) (147) (167) (168) (622) (677)
G&A, Development
(97) (22) (20) (30) (22) (94) (31) (31) (22) (25) (109) (103)
CQP Adjusted EBITDA
1,512 659 562 604 692 2,517 537 594 696 727 2,554 2,890
D&A
(339) (105) (106) (107) (106) (424) (122) (123) (126) (129) (500) (512)
Other Income
5 4 7 8 7 26 - - - - - -
Interest Expense, net of capitalized interest
(614) (185) (184) (183) (181) (733) (211) (235) (235) (235) (916) (874)
Income Taxes
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Adjusted Net Income
564 373 279 322 412 1,386 203 236 335 363 1,137 1,504
Distributable Cash Flow
Adjusted EBITDA
1,512 659 562 604 692 2,517 537 594 696 727 2,554 2,890
Total cash interest paid
(902) (232) (234) (235) (235) (936) (235) (235) (235) (235) (939) (940)
Capitalized interest
288 47 50 52 54 203 23 - - - 23 66
Distributable Cash Flow
898 474 378 421 511 1,784 326 359 461 492 1,638 2,016
DCF/LP Unit
$2.75 $0.85 $0.71 $0.77 $0.91 $3.24 $0.62 $0.68 $0.83 $0.88 $3.02 $3.60
Distribution Declared
$1.79 $0.55 $0.56 $0.58 $0.59 $2.28 $0.62 $0.62 $0.62 $0.62 $2.48 $2.55
Distribution Run Rate (end of period)
$1.79 $2.20 $2.24 $2.32 $2.36 $2.28 $2.48 $2.48 $2.48 $2.48 $2.48 $2.55
Distribution Growth YoY
5% 29% 32% 32% 18% 27% 13% 11% 7% 5% 9% 3%
Total Distribution Coverage
1.8x 1.7x 1.3x 1.4x 1.7x 1.6x 1.0x 1.1x 1.4x 1.5x 1.3x 1.5x
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88108294/bg14.jpg)
20
North America
Equity Research
22 March 2019
Jeremy Tonet, CFA
(1-212) 622-4915
jeremy.b.tonet@jpmorgan.com
CQP Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates
Balance Sheet
2017A 1Q18A 2Q18A 3Q18A 4Q18A 2018A 1Q19E 2Q19E 3Q19E 4Q19E 2019E 2020E
Cash and cash equivalents
1,589 1,477 1,521 1,457 1,541 1,541 1,063 600 738 750 750 816
Other current assets
550 588 541 578 815 815 815 815 815 815 815 815
Total current assets
2,139 2,065 2,062 2,035 2,356 2,356 1,878 1,415 1,553 1,565 1,565 1,631
Net PPE
15,139 15,145 15,207 15,282 15,390 15,390 15,749 16,107 15,962 15,971 15,971 16,084
Other assets
275 255 273 219 228 228 228 228 228 228 228 228
Total assets
17,553 17,465 17,542 17,536 17,974 17,974 17,855 17,750 17,743 17,764 17,764 17,943
Short-term debt
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Other current liabilities
829 649 730 694 1,068 1,068 1,068 1,068 1,068 1,068 1,068 1,068
Total current liabilities
829 649 730 694 1,068 1,068 1,068 1,068 1,068 1,068 1,068 1,068
Long-term debt
16,046 16,052 16,046 16,059 16,066 16,066 16,066 16,066 16,066 16,066 16,066 16,066
Other long-term liabilities and deferred credits
39 39 38 35 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Total Liabilities
16,914 16,740 16,814 16,788 17,174 17,174 17,174 17,174 17,174 17,174 17,174 17,174
Total partners' capital
639 725 728 748 800 800 681 576 569 590 590 769
Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
17,553 17,465 17,542 17,536 17,974 17,974 17,855 17,750 17,743 17,764 17,764 17,943
Cash Flow
Net income
490 335 281 307 351 1,274 203 236 335 363 1,137 1,504
Depreciation and amortization
339 105 106 107 106 424 122 123 126 129 500 512
Other non-cash items
12 41 - 1 90 132 - - - - - -
Change in working capital
33 (158) 79 24 57 2 - - - - - -
Net cash provided by operating activities
874 323 466 439 604 1,832 326 359 461 492 1,638 2,016
Capex
(1,290) (194) (151) (233) (226) (804) (481) (481) 19 (138) (1,081) (625)
Acquisitions
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Other
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Net cash used in investing activities
(1,290) (194) (151) (233) (226) (804) (481) (481) 19 (138) (1,081) (625)
Debt net
1,591 - (1) (3) (1) (5) (19) (19) (19) (19) (75) -
Equity net
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Distribution
(294) (249) (278) (287) (299) (1,113) (303) (323) (323) (323) (1,272) (1,325)
Other
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Net cash provided by financing activities
1,297 (249) (279) (290) (300) (1,118) (322) (342) (342) (342) (1,347) (1,325)
Net increase (decrease) in cash and equivalents
881 (120) 36 (84) 78 (90) (478) (463) 138 13 (791) 66
Cash and equivalents, beginning of period
605 1,589 1,477 1,521 1,457 1,589 1,541 1,063 600 738 1,541 750
Cash and equivalents, end of period
1,589 1,477 1,521 1,457 1,541 1,541 1,063 600 738 750 750 816
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