"JP摩根全球投资策略：企业活动发行与全球资金流动性"

投资策略

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Global

Markets Strategy

F&L Library

14 March 2019

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou

(44-20) 7134-7815

nikolaos.panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com

assets since the Lehman crisis bringing their total cash

holdings to $8.1tr as of Q1 this year.

Figure 8: Cash flows and Capex of US non-financial corporates

% of GDP per annum. Cash flows are proxied by profits after taxes and

dividends. Last obs. is Q1’18.

Source: Flow of Funds, J.P. Morgan.

Figure 9: Cash holdings of G4 non-financial corporates

In $tr, the chart is constructed at constant exchanges rates over time. Last

obs. is Q1’18.

Source: Flow of Funds, J.P. Morgan.

 In terms of the magnitude of the flows into equity and

bond markets stemming from these corporate savings,

we believe there was a relatively bigger flow into bond

markets in the initial years after the Lehman crisis as

annual corporate savings soared to above $1tr with the

majority being deployed directly or indirectly into bond

markets. But in the more recent years, as corporate

savings slowed to a $600bn pace over the past five years

or so, a bigger flow has been deployed into equities

relative to bonds. For example, we estimate that over the

past five years, G4 corporate savings boosted bond

demand by around $250bn per year with the rest $350bn

per year being deployed into share buybacks.

 What about the saving behavior of other private sector

entities such as financial corporations and households?

Have they exhibited a similarly persistent elevated

saving rate?

 Figure 10 shows the average household saving rate

across major developed economies. This saving rate

jumped in 2009 to almost 3% above its pre-Lehman low,

but reversed most of this increase after 2009. It currently

stands at a level similar to that seen in 2007. This

normalization has allowed consumer spending to support

the economic recovery since 2009. And the same is true

with the saving behavior of the financial sector. Figure

11 shows that the G4 financial corporate sector stopped

saving in 2015 already.

 And this comparison with households and financial

corporates makes the persistent saving stance of non-

financial corporates looking even more striking and

unusual.

 In all, despite normalization in the household and

financial sector saving behavior across major economies,

the non-financial corporate sector continues to exhibit a

rather elevated saving rate ten years after the financial

crisis. These corporate savings provide flow support to

both equities and bonds even as muted capital spending

acts as a drag for economic growth. This flow support

was greater for bonds in the initial years after the

financial crisis, but tilted more towards equities in the

more recent years.

Figure 10: DM household saving rate

% of disposable household income, yearly averages of major Euro area

economies as well as the UK, US, Japan, Canada and Australia. 2018 figures

represent forecasts.

Source: OECD

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

US capex

US cash flows

% GDP

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Mar-00 Mar-03 Mar-06 Mar-09 Mar-12 Mar-15 Mar-18

10%

12%

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Global

Markets Strategy

F&L Library

14 March 2019

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou

(44-20) 7134-7815

nikolaos.panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com

Figure 11: Financing surplus of G4 financial corporates

% of GDP for US, Euro area, UK, and Japanese financial and non-financial

corporates. Last obs. is Q1’18.

Source: Flow of Funds, J.P. Morgan.

How strong is corporate activity? (extract

from Flows & Liquidity, 13 Jul 18)

 There is little doubt that corporate activity has increased

significantly this year, boosted by US tax reform and

repatriation. But in volume terms, relative to the

capitalization of the equity market, the pace of this

activity looks much less impressive based on historical

standards.

 For example, while the dollar value of global M&A

activity stands at $5.6tr YTD on an annualized basis, not

far from the record high of $5.8tr seen in 2007, in

volume terms it is a third below the 2007 high.

 Announced US buybacks look set to approach one

trillion dollars this year if one annualizes their YTD

pace, the highest on record. But in volume terms, at 4%

of the capitalization of the S&P500 index, this year’s

announced US buyback pace is lower than the 6% record

high pace seen in 2007 and lower than the 5% post

Lehman peak seen in 2012.

 If one looks at net actual buybacks instead rather than

gross announced buybacks, the YTD pace of the share

count reduction across major US equity indices is almost

half of its 2015 high.

 We introduce a new equity positioning indicator page

based on the J.P. Morgan Prime Finance portfolio. Our

Prime Finance clients are currently most cautious on

Asian equities.

 EM hedge funds and hard currency active funds appear

to have entered July with UW exposures, while local

bond funds appear OW.

 Dramatic downshifting in China’s shadow banking

system.

 Negative momentum in commodities ex-energy

continues to build, with zinc reaching extreme oversold

territory.

 The dollar value of global M&A activity including

leveraged buyouts was up by almost 60% in the first half

of the year relative to the first half of 2017 according to

Dealogic. Annualized, this year’s M&A pace stands at

$5.6tr, not far from the record high of $5.8tr seen in

2007 (Figure 12).

Figure 12: Dollar value of announced global M&A

In $bn per annum. 2018 full year estimate is based on H1 pace annualized.

M&A dollar value includes LBOs.

Source: Dealogic, J.P. Morgan.

 This year’s M&A has been buoyed by activity with US

acquirers which, in the first half of the year, saw a pace

that was almost double of that seen during the same

period of 2017 (Figure 12). This supports the view that

US tax reform and repatriation have boosted both the

buying power and the buying interest of US companies.

And most of this extra buying power has been deployed

into US companies. Indeed, M&A with a US target has

risen by a lot more than M&A with a non-US target.

 As a result, the extra firepower that US companies got as

a result of US tax reform and repatriation is deployed

within the US with little leakage to the rest of the world.

The US focus of this extra firepower is reinforced by US

share buybacks, which also increased significantly this

year resulting to US companies withdrawing more of

their own stock. In other words, stronger US share

buybacks also means that the extra firepower that US

companies got as a result of tax reform and repatriation

is deployed within the US. It is thus no surprise that US

equities have outperformed their non-US counterparts

YTD.

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

G4 financial corporates

% GDP

G4 non-financial

corporates

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Full Year 1H

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