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C.Binzetal./TechnologicalForecasting&SocialChange79( )155–171
TISthusfarhavefocusedonspecificcountriesorprovidedcomparativeanalysesofalimitednumberofnationalcases[51,53–55].
This narrowfocus isinappropriate forinnovationsystemstudies in NICsbecause theyare oftenstronglyexport-oriented and
interdependentwithactors,networksandinstitutionsfromavarietyofforeigncountries[35].Inthefollowing,wethusintroduce
aspatialdifferentiationbyexplicitlypositingNIC-boundTISstructuresintheirinternationalcontext.
2.3.NationalandinternationalsegmentsofTISandtheircouplingdomains
The actors, networks and institutions of a TIS may span several countries or even the whole planet [21,23,39,46]. As
leapfrogging mostly refers to specific countries, we propose to analytically distinguish three segments of the TIS under
investigation.First,actors,networksandinstitutionsthatare”located”orprimarilyactiveintheNICbelongtoanationalsubsystem
oftheTIS(orshorter:nationalTIS).Second,allotheractors,networksandinstitutionsthatcouldbeidentifiedinthetechnological
field are attributed to the international TIS.5 This segment typically comprises globally operating actors, such as transnational
companies,butalsoencompassessmallandmedium-sizedenterprises,researchinstitutes,universities,orintermediaryactors
involvedintechnologyinnovationaroundtheworld.Third,actors,networksandinstitutionsfromtheinternationalTISsegment
thatsubstantiallyinfluencethenationalTISandviceversawillbetreatedascouplingdomains[56].
Inordertoformulateasetofideal-typeleapfroggingtrajectories,theTISanalysismethodologyproposedbyBergeketal.[39]has
tobeadapted.Tothisend,weanalyzethestructureandperformanceofthenationalTISintheNICofinterestsothatthematurityof
theTISstructure,itsfunctionalstrengthsandweaknesses,andstimuliandobstaclescanbeidentified.Theresultingperformance
assessmentcanthusbeinterpretedasthe”technologicalcapability”oftheNIC-boundedTISsegment.Inasecondstep,weassessthe
structuresandfunctionalitiesoftheinternationalTIS,emphasizingactors,networksandinstitutionsthatcouldpotentiallyreach
intotheNICcontext(see[22,23]).Inordertogeneratecomparableresults,werelyonthesamefunctionalindicatorsaselaborated
above(seeSection2.2).Thethirdstepofanalysisaddressesthecouplingdomainsbetweenthenationalandtheinternational
segments of the global TIS. In export-oriented NICs (especially China), research institutes, universities, associations, and even
politicians are increasingly involved in international networks and projects. This final step of analysis, therefore, focuses on
knowledgeandtechnologytransferchannels,suchasforeigndirectinvestment,technologylicensing,jointventures,migrationof
experts,internationalresearchcooperation,orinternationalconferences.DeficitsidentifiedinthenationalTISmaybecompensated
bycouplingswithinternationalTISstructures.Asanexample,weak”knowledgeformation”inaNICcouldbecompensatedbya
strongcouplingoflocaluniversitieswithforeignuniversitiesthroughjointresearchprojects.Thus,thislaststepbroadensour
understanding of the third necessary condition for leapfrogging from existing literature–technology transfer and financial
assistancefromdevelopedcountries–byoperationalizingitastheinteractionbetweenspatiallydifferentiatedsubsystemsofaTIS.
3.Ideal-typeleapfroggingtrajectories
Basedonthisschemeofanalysis,therelativeperformanceofthenationalandinternationalTISsegmentsandtheircoupling
domainscanbeassessed.Bycombiningallpossiblepermutationsofthisdistinction,eightideal-typeleapfroggingtrajectoriescan
bederived,asshowninTable1.
Inthefollowing,oneofthepossibletrajectorieswillbeleftoutandtwoofthemwillbemergedintoonedistincttrajectory.The
scenario”technologicalisolation”isnotoffurtherinterest,asitdescribesasituationinwhichinnovativeactivitytakesplaceonly
ininnovationsystemsattheinternationallevel,isolatedfromtheNICofinterest.The”subcriticalinnovationsystems”scenarios
bothdescribesituationswhereleapfroggingisimprobablebecauseofalackofinnovativeactors,networksandinstitutionsbothat
theinternationalandnationallevel.Wethereforemergedthemintoonesingle”subcriticalinnovationsystem”trajectory.Fig.1
illustratestheremaining,revisedsetofsixclearlydistincttrajectories.
LeapfroggingtrajectoryC,foreigndirectinvestment,describesthe”classic”startingpointofmostofthescientificliteratureon
leapfrogging [9], in which international actors introduce cutting-edge technologies in a NIC. TNC strategies and incentives
providedbytheNICgovernmentforattractingcutting-edgetechnologiesareofkeyimportancehere.Thistrajectoryhasbeen
discussedinvariouscasestudies,liketheChineseautomobileindustry[10,57]ormobilephonetelephonyinNICs[16,37].Basedon
ourtypology,thiscoretrajectoryofexistingleapfroggingstudiescannowbecomplementedwithadditionaltrajectories.
Theisolatedcompetenceformationtrajectory(trajectoryE)isthecontrarytoforeigndirectinvestmentandtheclassiccase
ofinnovationsystemstudiesthatapplyastrictlynationalfocus.Here,leapfroggingdevelopsinsidetheNICinanendogenous
bottom–upprocess,independentlyfromaweaklyperforminginternationalTIS.Newindustriesorproductsdevelopinprotected
marketswithinaNIC.Thistrajectorymayalsobefoundindependencetheory[58]orimportsubstitutionliterature[59].Here,
leapfroggingdependsmainlyontheincreaseofdomesticbasicknowledgeandlearningthroughpilotexperimentsandprotected
marketsprovidedbytheNICgovernment.
Trajectories A and B are intermediate forms, in which the different international coupling patterns can lead to two
fundamentallydifferenttrajectories.TheinternationalinnovationsystemtrajectorydescribesacaseinwhichbothTISsegments
areintegratedinatrulyinternationalinnovationsystem.Theinternationalcompetitiontrajectory,incontrast,isasituationin
whichtechnologicalcapabilitiesdevelopinmutualisolationandstrongcompetitionbetweenthenationalandtheinternational
TIS.Internationalknowledgetransfercanonlybeweakor withoutmutualconsent,asinthecaseofreverseengineering.The
5 Itwouldbemoreappropriatetocallthissegmentthe”generalTIS,excludingthespecificnationalTISstructuresinfocus.”Asthiswouldberatherawkward,
weusethesimplerversionof”internationalTIS”(asperceivedbytheNIC).