2021中国汽车国营OEM：平淡销售季下的盈利压力与定价竞争

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Equities

● Automobiles

9 June 2021

Exhibit 3. Car demand momentum is

picking up from 3Q20

Exhibit 4. April retail volume is up 12.3% y-

o-y while down 8.7% m-o-m

Source: CADA, HSBC Qianhai Securities

Increasing pricing pressure among local brands in low season 2Q

According to CADA data, the wholesale volume growth is slightly higher than retail volume

growth in the first four months of 2021, suggesting potential channel stocking and inventory

build-up. The current industry inventory is 1.57 months while the Inventory Alert Index, which

signals whether auto demand is strong, is at 56.4%, higher than the threshold of 50%.

2Q is usually a low season for local brands sales. Additionally, local brands’ inventory levels are

higher than those of international brands in general, which may result in higher pricing pressure

and more intense price competition.

Exhibit 5. Vehicle Inventory Alert Index is

at 56.4%, above the inventory management

threshold

Exhibit 6. Inventory levels is keeping up

from March 2021

Source: CADA, HSBC Qianhai Securities

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Jan-Feb 17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Sep-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-Feb 20

May-20

Aug-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

Monthly y-o-y growth

26%

68%

12%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

2019 monthly sales volume

2020 monthly sales volume

2021 monthly sales volume

2021 Y-o-y growth

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Jan 18

Apr 18

Jul 18

Oct 18

Jan 19

Apr 19

Jul 19

Oct 19

Jan 20

Apr 20

Jul 20

Oct 20

Jan 21

Apr 21

Inventory Alert Index Threshold

1.53

1.68

1.54

1.57

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Inventory Indicator 2019

Inventory Indicator 2020

Inventory Indicator 2021

Threshold

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2021中国汽车国营OEM：平淡销售季下的盈利压力与定价竞争

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