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ODASA(R&T) | Emerging S&T Trends: 2016-2045
Mobile & Cloud Computing
Mobile and cloud computing are transforming the way people interact
with data. In the United States, an estimated 30 percent of Web browsing
and 40 percent of social media use are currently done on mobile devices.
By 2030, 75% of the world’s population will have mobile connectivity
and 60% should have broadband access. Mobile devices are becoming
more powerful and feature-rich, with a growing variety of embedded
sensors that measure weather, location, ambient light and sound,
and biometrics. Working in tandem with mobile data access, cloud
computing provides access to almost unlimited computational power
that scales seamlessly without requiring massive investments in IT
infrastructure. Over the next 30 years, cloud-based mobile computing
has the potential to transform everything from health care to education.
Cell phones will monitor vital signs and communicate directly with
diagnostic applications, people will use online educational portals
from mobile devices to learn new skills, and apps will allow farmers
in developing nations to connect to real-time weather data and tools
for optimizing their harvests. At the same time, mobile and cloud
computing will put significant pressure on network security, reliability,
and bandwidth, and both consumers and enterprises will have to
grow more comfortable with relinquishing their data to the cloud.
Medical Advances
Over the next 30 years, medicine will be transformed by multiple
technological breakthroughs. Genomics will give rise to personalized
medicine, with treatments for cancer, cardiovascular disease, Alzheimer’s,
and other diseases tailored to individual genetics. Artificial organs will be
grown for transplantation from DNA samples, eliminating wait times for
life-saving transplants and the risk of organ rejection. Prosthetics will be
wired directly into the nervous system and will incorporate biologically
based sensors that provide a near-normal sense of touch. Robotic first
responders and tissue preservation techniques such as controlled
hypothermia will revolutionize trauma care and greatly extend the “golden
hour” for wounded Soldiers. As scientists unlock the keys to aging, people
will live longer and stay healthy and active well into what today we
consider “old age”. At the same time, the cost of advanced medical care
will stress many national health care systems and trigger rising inequality
in access to life-saving treatments. The coming medical revolution will
also enable people to remain healthy and productive for decades longer,
amplifying competition for jobs between older and younger workers
and creating additional strain on social safety nets. Drug resistant
bacteria will become an urgent problem in many parts of the world.
Cyber
Cyberdefense is hardly a
new trend—warnings about
a “cyber Pearl Harbor”
were made as early as
1991. However, over the
next 30 years the rise of
the internet of things and
growing interdependence
among connected aspects
of everyday life will bring
cybersecurity to the
forefront. While the number
and scope of cyberattacks
is increasing, most have
been targeted against individual consumers or corporations and the
damage from individual attacks, while extensive, has been easily contained.
As cars, home appliances, power plants, streetlights, and millions of
other objects become networked, the potential for a truly devastating
cyberattack will grow. Nations, corporations, and individuals will be
challenged to secure their data from ever more insidious attacks—many of
which may go undetected for years. The worst-case scenario envisions a
form of “cybergeddon”, in which the immense economic and social power
of the Internet collapses under the weight of relentless cyberattacks.
Energy
Over the next 30 years the global demand for energy is projected to
grow by 35%. The development of methods like fracking and directional
drilling have opened vast new reserves of oil and natural gas. These
technologies have up-ended global oil markets and turned the United
States into one of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers. At the same
time, renewable energy sources such as solar and wind are approaching
cost-parity with fossil fuels. In the past two decades, the cost of power
produced by solar cells has dropped from nearly $8 per watt of capacity
to less than one-tenth of that amount. Nuclear, while still the subject
of intense public debate, is continuing to grow, with new reactor
designed promising greater safety and less radioactive waste. While
adoption of cleaner energy sources would help combat global climate
change, new frictions will emerge over access to rare materials used
in batteries, solar cells, and other linchpins of the energy revolution.
The fading of fossil fuels also carries significant risk of economic
and social destabilization across the Middle East and North Africa,
presenting new security challenges for the United States and its allies.
EMERGING S&T TRENDS CONT.