PMI项目风险管理实践标准

project,risk

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"PRACTICE STANDARD FOR PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT - PMI标准，与PMBOK配套使用，关注项目风险管理" 在项目管理中，风险是不可避免的一部分，有效地管理风险能够确保项目的成功进行。《PRACTICE STANDARD FOR PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT》是由项目管理协会（Project Management Institute, PMI）出版的一份重要标准，它与《项目管理知识体系指南》（PMBOK）配套使用，为项目经理提供了一套完整的风险管理框架和实践指导。该标准涵盖了项目风险管理的多个关键方面： 1. **风险管理规划**：在项目开始阶段，制定风险管理策略和计划，包括识别风险的程序、风险概率和影响的评估方法，以及如何分配资源来管理这些风险。 2. **风险识别**：通过各种工具和技术（如头脑风暴、专家判断、文档审查等）来识别可能对项目产生影响的风险源。 3. **风险分析**：对识别出的风险进行量化或定性分析，确定其概率和影响，这通常涉及概率和影响矩阵、敏感性分析和建模技术。 4. **风险优先级排序**：根据风险的概率和影响评估结果，对风险进行排序，以便优先处理高影响力和高可能性的风险。 5. **风险应对规划**：针对每个重要的风险，制定应对策略，这可能包括风险减轻、转移、接受或利用。 6. **风险监控和控制**：持续监测项目中的风险，评估风险应对措施的有效性，并根据需要调整风险策略。这一过程包括使用定量和定性的数据来评估风险状态。 7. **风险沟通**：确保所有关键干系人了解项目中的风险情况，这包括定期的风险报告和沟通计划。 8. **风险管理文化**：建立一个鼓励团队成员积极参与风险管理的环境，通过培训和教育提高风险意识，促进风险管理成为项目组织的核心价值观。 9. **风险审计**：定期审查风险管理过程，确保其符合项目目标和组织政策，同时提供改进的机会。 PMI的标准强调了风险管理的系统性和全面性，它不仅提供了理论框架，还包含了实用的工具和技巧，帮助项目经理在实际操作中有效地管理和应对项目风险。通过遵循这些标准，项目团队可以更准确地预测和应对潜在问题，降低不确定性带来的负面影响，从而提高项目成功的可能性。

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otherk

CHAPTER 1 − INTRODUCTION

1.2 Project Risk Management Deﬁ nition

The deﬁ nition of Project Risk Management, as deﬁ ned in the PMBOK

Guide – Fourth Edition, is the basis

for this practice standard: “Project Risk Management includes the processes concerned with conducting

risk management planning, identiﬁ cation, analysis, responses, and monitoring and control on a project.” The

PMBOK

Guide – Fourth Edition also states: “The objectives of Project Risk Management are to increase the

probability and impact of positive events, and decrease the probability and impact of negative events in the

project.” In the PMBOK

Guide – Fourth Edition, “project risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs,

has a positive or negative effect on a project’s objectives.” Project objectives include scope, schedule, cost,

and quality.

Project Risk Management aims to identify and prioritize risks in advance of their occurrence, and provide

action-oriented information to project managers. This orientation requires consideration of events that may

or may not occur and are therefore described in terms of likelihood or probability of occurrence in addition to

other dimensions such as their impact on objectives.

1.3 Role of Project Risk Management in Project Management

Project Risk Management is not an optional activity: it is essential to successful project management.

It should be applied to all projects and hence be included in project plans and operational documents. In

this way, it becomes an integral part of every aspect of managing the project, in every phase and in every

process group.

Many of the project management processes address planning the project, from concept to ﬁ nal design

and from procurement through daily management of execution and close-out. These processes often

assume an unrealistic degree of certainty about the project and, therefore, they need to include treatment of

project risks.

Project Risk Management addresses the uncertainty in project estimates and assumptions. Therefore, it

builds upon and extends other project management processes. For instance, project scheduling provides dates

and critical paths based on activity durations and resource availability assumed to be known with certainty.

Quantitative risk analysis explores the uncertainty in the estimated durations and may provide alternative dates

and critical paths that are more realistic given the risks to the project.

Project Risk Management is not a substitute for the other project management processes. On the contrary,

Project Risk Management requires that these project management processes (e.g. scheduling, budgeting, and

change management) be performed at the level of the best practices available. Project Risk Management adds

the perspective of project risk to the outputs of those other processes and adds to their value by taking risk

into account. For instance, risk management provides the basis upon which to estimate the amount of cost and

schedule contingency reserves that are needed to cover risk response actions to a required level of conﬁ dence

for meeting project objectives.

otherk

CHAPTER 1 − INTRODUCTION

There is a paradox about project risk that affects most projects. In the early stages of a project, the level of

risk exposure is at its maximum but information on the project risks is at a minimum. This situation does not

mean that a project should not go forward because little is known at that time. Rather, there may be different

ways of approaching the project that have different risk implications. The more this situation is recognized, the

more realistic the project plans and expectations of results will be.

A risk management approach is applicable throughout a project’s life cycle. The earlier in the project life

cycle that the risks are recognized, the more realistic the project plans and expectations of results will be. Risk

management continues to add value as project planning progresses and more information becomes available

about all aspects and components of the project and its environment, such as stakeholders, scope, time, and

cost, as well as the corresponding assumptions and constraints. The balance between project ﬂ exibility and

knowledge about project risk needs to be reviewed regularly and optimized as the plans develop.

It is true that as the project plan becomes set with fundamental decisions, agreements, and contracts in

place, the options for making substantial changes to capture opportunities or mitigate threats are reduced.

During project execution, risk management processes monitor the changes the project undergoes for new

risks that may emerge so that appropriate responses to them can be developed, as well as check for existing

risks that are no longer plausible. Project Risk Management plays a role in providing realistic expectations for

the completion dates and cost of the project even if there are few options for changing the future.

Finally, throughout the project and during project closure, risk-related lessons are reviewed in order to

contribute to organizational learning and support continuous improvement of Project Risk Management

practice.

1.4 Good Risk Management Practice

Project Risk Management is a valuable component of project management and it enhances the value of

the other project management processes. As with all of these processes, Project Risk Management should be

conducted in a manner consistent with existing organizational practices and policies. In addition, like the other

processes involved in project management, Project Risk Management should be conducted in a way that is

appropriate to the project. Project Risk Management should recognize the business challenges as well as the

multi-cultural environment associated with an increasingly global environment including many joint venture

projects and customers, suppliers, and workforces spread around the globe.

Changes in the project management plan that result from the Project Risk Management process may

require decisions at the appropriate level of management to reassign personnel, establish or modify budgets,

make commitments to others outside the project, interact with regulators, and comply with the rules of

accounting and law. Project Risk Management should be conducted in compliance with these internal and

external requirements.

otherk

CHAPTER 1 − INTRODUCTION

Speciﬁ c criteria for success of each Project Risk Management process are listed in the chapters dealing

with those processes. The general criteria for success include:

• Recognize the Value of Risk Management — Project Risk Management should be recognized

as a valuable discipline that provides a positive potential return on investment for organizational

management, project stakeholders (both internal and external), project management, and team

members.

• Individual Commitment/Responsibility — Project participants and stakeholders should all accept

responsibility for undertaking risk-related activities as required. Risk management is everybody’s

responsibility.

• Open and Honest Communication — Everyone should be involved in the Project Risk Management

process. Any actions or attitudes that hinder communication about project risk reduce the effectiveness

of Project Risk Management in terms of proactive approaches and effective decision-making.

• Organizational Commitment — Organizational commitment can only be established if risk

management is aligned with the organization’s goals and values. Project Risk Management may

require a higher level of managerial support than other project management disciplines because

handling some of the risks will require approval of or responses from others at levels above the

project manager.

• Risk Effort Scaled to Project — Project Risk Management activities should be consistent with the value

of the project to the organization and with its level of project risk, its scale, and other organizational

constraints. In particular, the cost of Project Risk Management should be appropriate to its potential

value to the project and the organization.

• Integration with Project Management — Project Risk Management does not exist in a vacuum,

isolated from other project management processes. Successful Project Risk Management requires

the correct execution of the other project management processes.

These critical success factors for Project Risk Management are illustrated in Figure 1-2.

1.6 Conclusion

The principles of Project Risk Management described in this practice standard should be appropriately

applied based on the speciﬁ cs of a project and the organizational environment. Project Risk Management

provides beneﬁ ts when it is implemented according to good practice principles and with organizational

commitment to taking the decisions and performing actions in an open and unbiased manner.

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