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首页《石油巨头与IMO:破坏力较少,依然乐观》
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Equities
●
Oil & Gas
2 April 2019
6
Additional refinery throughput resulting from product imbalance: old vs new assumption
Source: HSBC estimates
Our revised marine fuel model is summarised in the graphs below:
Marine fuel demand projection - by type of consumable fuel
Source: HSBC estimates including 2018 actuals
Marine fuel demand projection – by source fuel
Source: HSBC estimates including 2018 actuals
0.3
0.8
0.85
0.8
0.7
0.35
0.2
0.10
0.73
0.48
0.51
0.32
-0.11
-0.15
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e
(mbd)
Add. Throughput - OLD
Add. Throughput - New
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2017
2018
2019e
2020e
2021e
2022e
2023e
2024e
2025e
2026e
2027e
2028e
2029e
2030e
(mbd)
LNG/Alternative
MGO/MDO
Blended fuel
Straight-run VLSFO
Scrubbed HSFO
Unscrubbed HSFO
Compliance Rate (%)
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2017
2018
2019e
2020e
2021e
2022e
2023e
2024e
2025e
2026e
2027e
2028e
2029e
2030e
(mbd)
LNG/Alternative
MGO/MDO
Distillates Blended
Gasoil Blended
Straight-run VLSFO
HSFO Blended
Scrubbed HSFO
Unscrubbed HSFO
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88108354/bg7.jpg)
7
Equities
●
Oil & Gas
2 April 2019
Revised refining margin assumptions
Diesel/gasoil (-): We trim our margin assumptions for middle distillates, including ultra-low
sulphur diesel (ULSD) and gasoil (a wider category that includes diesel). We now assume
European diesel/gasoil margins rise from USD14/12/b, respectively, in the past 5 years
(2014-18) to USD22/19/b on average in 2020, peaking in the first half of 2020 at
USD24/21/b. (Our new margin assumptions are USD3-4/b lower than our previous
forecasts in 2020.) By way of comparison, diesel/gasoil margins reached an all-time high of
USD38/34/b in the second quarter of 2008 when the global middle distillate market
tightened significantly due to surging demand.
Fuel oil (+): We materially raise our HSFO (3.5% sulphur) price assumptions given a)
higher scrubbed HSFO demand and b) a tighter HSFO market at present, due to a shortage
of heavy sour crudes, caused by lower exports from Iran and Venezuela. We expect a
narrower HSFO discount to Brent of USD25/b in 2020 vs >USD40/b previously, peaking at
USD32/b in the first quarter of 2020.
Gasoline (+): We raise our European gasoline margin assumptions, as we expect lower
incremental refinery runs and therefore less gasoline “over-production”. Global gasoline
cracks were extremely weak in early 2019, reaching zero or even negative levels, but have
since rallied strongly on the back of refinery outages in the US. We think the impact of IMO
2020 should be broadly neutral for gasoline. Even as refinery throughputs rise, FCC
(gasoline-making unit) runs will likely be cut as feeds (such as vacuum gasoil or VGO) will
be re-allocated to other units to increase diesel/gasoil output. There remain structural
issues weighing on gasoline margins, such as the rise of US light tight oil rich in light ends
(i.e. LPG, naphtha and gasoline) and sluggish global gasoline demand growth.
Diesel margins to normalise faster after 1H20 spike; gasoline less depressed than
previously assumed (USD/b)
Source: Refinitiv Eikon, HSBC estimates. NB: shows NW European ultra-low sulphur diesel cracks
(5)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1Q2006 1Q2008 1Q2010 1Q2012 1Q2014 1Q2016 1Q2018 1Q2020e 1Q2022e
Diesel Gasoline
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