《石油巨头与IMO：破坏力较少，依然乐观》

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Oil & Gas

2 April 2019

Additional refinery throughput resulting from product imbalance: old vs new assumption

Source: HSBC estimates

Our revised marine fuel model is summarised in the graphs below:

Marine fuel demand projection - by type of consumable fuel

Source: HSBC estimates including 2018 actuals

Marine fuel demand projection – by source fuel

Source: HSBC estimates including 2018 actuals

0.3

0.8

0.85

0.8

0.7

0.35

0.2

0.10

0.73

0.48

0.51

0.32

-0.11

-0.15

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e

(mbd)

Add. Throughput - OLD

Add. Throughput - New

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

2021e

2022e

2023e

2024e

2025e

2026e

2027e

2028e

2029e

2030e

(mbd)

LNG/Alternative

MGO/MDO

Blended fuel

Straight-run VLSFO

Scrubbed HSFO

Unscrubbed HSFO

Compliance Rate (%)

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

2021e

2022e

2023e

2024e

2025e

2026e

2027e

2028e

2029e

2030e

(mbd)

LNG/Alternative

MGO/MDO

Distillates Blended

Gasoil Blended

Straight-run VLSFO

HSFO Blended

Scrubbed HSFO

Unscrubbed HSFO

Equities

●

Oil & Gas

2 April 2019

Revised refining margin assumptions



Diesel/gasoil (-): We trim our margin assumptions for middle distillates, including ultra-low

sulphur diesel (ULSD) and gasoil (a wider category that includes diesel). We now assume

European diesel/gasoil margins rise from USD14/12/b, respectively, in the past 5 years

(2014-18) to USD22/19/b on average in 2020, peaking in the first half of 2020 at

USD24/21/b. (Our new margin assumptions are USD3-4/b lower than our previous

forecasts in 2020.) By way of comparison, diesel/gasoil margins reached an all-time high of

USD38/34/b in the second quarter of 2008 when the global middle distillate market

tightened significantly due to surging demand.



Fuel oil (+): We materially raise our HSFO (3.5% sulphur) price assumptions given a)

higher scrubbed HSFO demand and b) a tighter HSFO market at present, due to a shortage

of heavy sour crudes, caused by lower exports from Iran and Venezuela. We expect a

narrower HSFO discount to Brent of USD25/b in 2020 vs >USD40/b previously, peaking at

USD32/b in the first quarter of 2020.



Gasoline (+): We raise our European gasoline margin assumptions, as we expect lower

incremental refinery runs and therefore less gasoline “over-production”. Global gasoline

cracks were extremely weak in early 2019, reaching zero or even negative levels, but have

since rallied strongly on the back of refinery outages in the US. We think the impact of IMO

2020 should be broadly neutral for gasoline. Even as refinery throughputs rise, FCC

(gasoline-making unit) runs will likely be cut as feeds (such as vacuum gasoil or VGO) will

be re-allocated to other units to increase diesel/gasoil output. There remain structural

issues weighing on gasoline margins, such as the rise of US light tight oil rich in light ends

(i.e. LPG, naphtha and gasoline) and sluggish global gasoline demand growth.

Diesel margins to normalise faster after 1H20 spike; gasoline less depressed than

previously assumed (USD/b)

Source: Refinitiv Eikon, HSBC estimates. NB: shows NW European ultra-low sulphur diesel cracks

(5)

1Q2006 1Q2008 1Q2010 1Q2012 1Q2014 1Q2016 1Q2018 1Q2020e 1Q2022e

Diesel Gasoline

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错误: 最后期望字段后有额外数据 ��: COPY trajectory, 行 1: "mmsi,imo,vessel_name,callsign,vessel_type,vessel_type_code,vessel_type_cargo,vessel_class,length,wid..."

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