"中国农业：技术创新与市场趋势驱动下的投资机遇分析"

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The document "Goldman Sachs Gao Hua - China Agriculture: Long-term Considerations for Changes in Chinese Diets (English Version) - Pages 7-143.pdf" provides an insightful analysis of the agricultural industry and the future of food consumption in China. The report highlights the challenges of overexploitation of natural resources and the rising production costs in Chinese agriculture, which are currently twice as high as those in other major agricultural countries. In order to balance future food supply and demand, China will need to focus on increasing yield through technological innovation and increasing imports. Despite these challenges, the report suggests that the investment prospects in the Chinese agricultural sector are attractive. Factors such as the recent African swine fever, climate conditions, and the end of inventory reduction are expected to drive an upward price cycle in the short term, while long-term trends indicate a structural increase in prices. Moreover, as China undergoes a transformation in its agricultural industry, factors such as supply integration, dietary structure upgrades, and the increased penetration of efficient new technologies and products are expected to create relatively strong growth opportunities within the industry. However, it is important for investors to consider the potential conflicts of interest that may arise due to the business relationships between Beijing Gao Hua Securities Co., Ltd. and its affiliated entities with the companies analyzed in the research report. Therefore, investors should not rely solely on this report as the only factor in making investment decisions. The report emphasizes the importance of considering the analyst's statements and other important information, as well as consulting with a financial advisor. Overall, the report provides a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural industry in China and its potential for growth and development in the future.

Exhibit 12: China food demand outlook - 2018 versus LT

Exhibit 13: China imports as % of China demand

The weight of the imports is likely to raise over time

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

Beef-2018

Beef-LT

Milk eq-2018

Milk eq-LT

Soybean-2018

Soybean-LT

Corn-2018

Corn-LT

Soybean-eq-2018

Soybean-eq-LT

Corn-eq-2018

Corn-eq-LT

Domestic supply

Net imports

Annual demand - China (in 10 mnt, except beef in mnt)

14%

41%

20%

35%

84%

83%

16%

45%

47%

16%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Beef-2018

Beef-LT

Milk eq-2018

Milk eq-LT

Soybean-2018

Soybean-LT

Corn-2018

Corn-LT

Soybean-eq-2018

Soybean-eq-LT

Corn-eq-2018

Corn-eq-LT

Import in total demand - China (%)

Source: USDA

Source: FAO, USDA, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 14: Monthly beef imports - China

On a secular rise for a few years and have continued to surge in recent

months

Exhibit 15: Raw milk and milk equivalent (powder and cheese)

imports

Milk imports have been on the rise

-20%

-10%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Monthly beef imports (annualized) (mnt)

YoY (%)

-40%

-20%

20%

40%

60%

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Monthly raw milk and equivalent imports (annualized) (mnt)

YoY (%)

Source: Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

18 July 2019

Goldman Sachs

China Agriculture

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China in the global agriculture sector

China is not the only place where food demand is rising. Its changing appetite is part of

the global food demand trend, adding greater challenges to global food production in the

coming years.

In the past 20 years, global food demand, quantiﬁed in aggregate supply of major crops

including soybeans, corn, wheat, and rice, has increased by 950mnt or over 50%, driven

by population growth (28% over the period) and higher food consumption as a result of

urbanization. Based on projections from the United Nations Food and Agriculture

Organization’s (FAO), world population will continue to grow from 7.6 bn in 2018 to 9.1

bn in 2050, with around 70% of the world population living in cities or urban areas by

2050, up from 49% today. Based on our analysis on China and ex-China projections from

the FAO, we estimate global food supply will likely grow by another 50% or 1.4bnt in the

coming 20-30 years, including 25% growth in wheat and rice, and stronger growth of

80-130% in corn and soybeans driven by animal feed demand. Our long-term estimates

are based on the growth rate implied from the FAO long-term forecasts, feed conversion

ratios, and reported demand ﬁgures from 2018A (2330 mnt for cereal and 268mnt for

major meat categories including pork, beef, and chicken, 3-7% above the FAO’s earlier

projection implied from the growth rate).

As of 2018A, China has consumed an outsized share of soft commodities such as pork,

ﬁsh, soybeans, and corn — China (24% of total world population) accounts for nearly

half of global pork consumption, over one third of global ﬁsh and seafood, one-third of

soybean, a quarter of corn demand. Howeve

r, China remains lean in the consumption of

high-quality animal proteins such as beef, chicken, and milk. More importantly, China has

been a major driver for global food consumption growth in the past ten years,

accounting for 40-50% of global beef, pork, soybeans, and corn, and should continue to

account for 10-27% of the future growth in our estimates.

Exhibit 16: Global agriculture market - 2018A and 1998A

Exhibit 17: China’s share in global food consumption (2017A)

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Soybean Corn Rice Wheat Milk Animal protein

(pork/beef/chicken)

1998A-consumption

2018A-consumption

Global food annual consumption (mnt)

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Pork Fish,

Seafood

Soybean Rice Corn Wheat Beef Chicken Milk

China consumption as % of global (%)

China population as % of global (%)

Source: USDA, FAO, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

18 July 2019

Goldman Sachs

China Agriculture

Globally, we estimate total

food supply will likely grow

by another 50% or 1.4bnt

in the coming 20-30 years

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Exhibit 18: China soft commodity supply and demand outlook

Unit 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E LT Chgs Chgs CAGR

Crops-China 2008-18 2018-LT 2018-LT

Consumption mnt 444 467 493 524 544 550 552 573 638 648 646 636 640 650 661 671 682 686 736 202 89 0.4%

Production mnt 423 427 445 461 479 496 498 510 550 552 550 553 553 553 556 554 554 558 558 127 8 0.0%

Imports mnt 40 52 53 67 67 83 89 93 104 104 93 75 78 89 104 109 116 114 154 53 61 1.6%

As % of global trade % 12% 15% 15% 18% 18% 19% 20% 19% 21% 20% 18% 15% 15% 17% 19% 20% 21% 21% 26% 5.2% 8.5% n/a

Soybean

Consumption mnt 54 61 68 74 75 80 89 93 106 109 105 101 102 105 108 112 115 116 138 51 33 0.9%

Production mnt 15 14 16 14 12 13 14 11 12 15 16 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 24 1 9 1.4%

Net imports mnt 415052596070788393948482858795909292118 43 34 1.1%

As % of global trade % 53% 58% 59% 63% 62% 63% 63% 62% 65% 61% 55% 55% 55% 56% 58% 57% 57% 57% 63% 2% 8% n/a

Corn

Consumption mnt 152 165 180 188 200 208 202 227 271 279 275 270 275 284 292 301 310 314 346 124 71 0.7%

Production mnt 166 164 177 193 206 218 216 225 264 259 257 256 261 267 272 273 275 276 276 91 19 0.2%

Net imports mnt 0 1 1 5 3 3 6 3 2 3 5 0 6 11 16 23 30 31 51 5 46 7.5%

As % of global trade % 0% 1% 1% 5% 3% 3% 4% 2% 2% 2% 3% 0% 4% 7% 10% 13% 17% 17% 25% 3% 22% n/a

Rice (milled equiv.)

Consumption mnt 133 134 135 140 144 146 145 141 142 142 144 143 142 141 141 140 139 138 137 11 -7 -0.2%

Production mnt 130 134 137 137 141 143 143 145 146 148 149 148 146 144 142 139 137 138 139 19 -10 -0.2%

Net imports mnt 00013445441-4-2-1020-2-4 1 -5 n/a

Wheat

Consumption mnt 106 107 111 123 125 117 117 112 119 117 122 121 121 120 119 119 118 117 115 17 -7 -0.2%

Production mnt 112 115 115 117 121 122 126 130 129 130 128 130 126 123 121 119 119 119 119 16 -9 -0.2%

Net imports mnt 01022613433-3-10-8-8-6-6-7-11 4 -14 n/a

Meat (pork, beef, chicken)- China

Consumption mnt 69.0 72.1 74.8 75.6 79.5 81.7 82.9 81.1 82.1 82.2 83.4 83.4 82.7 84.9 87.1 90.4 91.9 93.4 99.9 14.4 16.5 0.6%

Production mnt 68.3 71.9 74.5 74.9 78.7 80.6 81.8 79.5 78.9 79.6 80.7 74.1 69.8 72.2 75.2 78.1 80.9 83.7 88.7 12.4 8.0 0.3%

Imports mnt 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.6 2.7 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.2 4.1 4.8 5.6 6.4 7.3 11.1 2.1 8.5 4.6%

As % of global trade % 3% 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 7% 11% 10% 11% 12% 12% 15% 18% 20% 22% 24% 33% 7.9% 22.3% n/a

Pork

Consumption mnt 46.7 48.9 50.8 51.1 53.9 55.5 57.2 55.7 55.0 54.8 55.1 52.6 50.1 50.8 51.5 53.1 52.9 52.6 50.7 8.4 -4.5 -0.3%

Production mnt 46.2 48.9 50.7 50.6 53.4 54.9 56.7 54.9 53.0 53.4 53.9 44.9 38.8 40.2 42.2 44.1 45.9 47.7 47.7 7.7 -6.2 -0.4%

Net imports mnt 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.0 0.8 1.8 2.9%

Deficit mnt -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -6.3 -9.7 -8.5 -7.1 -6.8 -4.6 -2.4 0.0 n/a n/a n/a

as % of global trade % 6% 2% 3% 7% 8% 9% 9% 12% 20% 15% 15% 17% 20% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 30% 8.7% 15.2% n/a

Poultry

Consumption mnt 16.2 16.8 17.5 18.0 18.9 19.2 18.4 18.1 19.3 19.1 19.7 21.8 23.0 24.0 25.0 26.0 27.1 28.2 33.4 3.5 13.7 1.7%

Production mnt 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.7 18.9 18.2 17.9 18.9 18.9 19.4 21.7 23.3 24.0 24.7 25.5 26.2 27.0 31.7 3.4 12.3 1.5%

Net imports mnt 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 0.1 1.4 5.6%

As % of global trade % 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 4% 2% 3% 2% -4% -1% 2% 6% 8% 11% 16% 0.3% 13% n/a

Beef

Consumption mnt 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.7 7.1 7.3 7.3 7.8 8.2 8.5 9.0 9.6 10.1 10.7 11.3 12.0 12.7 15.8 2.4 7.3 1.9%

Production mnt 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.9 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.5 8.7 9.0 9.3 1.2 2.0 0.7%

Net imports mnt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.6 6.5 1.3 5.3 5.4%

As % of global trade % -1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 5% 5% 8% 10% 12% 14% 17% 20% 23% 25% 28% 31% 34% 48% 15% 33% n/a

Aqua products

Consumption mnt 49.1 51.3 53.9 56.2 55.0 57.4 60.0 62.0 64.0 64.7 64.9 67.3 69.8 72.3 74.8 77.4 80.0 82.6 94.2 15.8 29.3 1.2%

Production mnt 49.0 51.2 53.7 56.0 54.8 57.2 59.8 61.8 63.8 64.5 64.7 66.9 69.1 71.3 73.6 76.0 78.5 81.1 83.8 15.7 19.1 0.8%

Net imports mnt 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 10.4 0.1 10.2 13.1%

Egg

Consumption mnt 26.9 27.4 27.7 28.2 28.8 29.0 29.2 30.4 31.5 30.9 31.2 31.7 32.2 32.3 32.4 32.5 32.6 32.7 32.8 4.3 1.6 0.2%

Production mnt 27.0 27.5 27.8 28.3 28.9 29.1 29.3 30.5 31.6 31.0 31.3 31.6 31.9 32.1 32.2 32.4 32.6 32.7 32.9 4.3 1.6 0.2%

Net imports mnt -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -1.8%

Milk

Consumption mnt 30.9 31.7 34.0 35.8 38.3 39.1 41.6 39.3 39.2 40.1 40.2 41.8 44.3 46.4 48.7 50.9 53.3 55.8 66.4 9.3 26.1 1.6%

Production mnt 30.0 29.6 30.5 32.0 33.1 31.5 33.1 33.3 32.2 31.9 31.3 31.1 32.3 33.6 35.0 36.4 37.8 39.4 43.3 1.3 12.0 1.0%

Net imports mnt 0.9 2.1 3.4 3.8 4.9 7.2 8.1 5.4 6.3 7.3 7.9 9.6 12.0 12.8 13.7 14.6 15.5 16.4 23.1 7.0 15.2 3.4%

As % of global trade % 7% 17% 27% 30% 38% 56% 62% 41% 47% 54% 59% 64% 69% 70% 72% 73% 74% 75% 81% 52% 22% n/a

China grain-equivalent demand

Soybean mnt 54 61 69 75 76 82 92 97 111 114 110 107 108 113 118 122 127 129 158 55.9 48.1 1.1%

Corn mnt 154 166 182 191 204 214 208 234 282 289 287 284 291 302 314 325 336 344 393 78.6 105.5 1.0%

China grain-equivalent imports

Soybean mnt 41 51 53 60 61 73 81 86 98 98 89 88 91 96 104 101 104 105 138 47.5 49.2 1.4%

Corn mnt 1 1 3 4 9 910121413151916253240506077 5.3 62.5 5.3%

% of global grain-equivalent trade

Soybean mnt 53% 58% 60% 64% 63% 64% 64% 64% 66% 63% 57% 57% 58% 59% 61% 61% 61% 62% 68% 4% 11% n/a

Corn mnt 1% 1% 4% 4% 9% 7% 8% 9% 9% 8% 9% 11% 9% 14% 17% 21% 24% 28% 31% 8% 22% n/a

Grobal trade (forecast trade only based on changes from China)

Chgs Chgs

Rice mnt 27.2 28.1 32.9 35.6 36.5 38.4 41.1 38.3 41.3 47.4 45.2 40.8 42.2 43.5 44.7 45.9 44.3 42.7 40.7 12.4 -4.5

Wheat mnt 136.9 133.6 131.9 149.3 145.3 158.4 159.1 170.2 178.9 179.1 176.2 169.9 162.9 164.8 165.4 167.1 166.4 165.8 162.0 44.3 -14.2

Soybean mnt 77.4 86.8 88.7 93.5 95.9 111.9 124.4 133.3 144.4 153.7 152.3 150.6 153.1 155.9 163.5 158.7 161.0 160.3 186.2 63.5 33.9

Corn mnt 82.6 89.8 92.4 99.9 99.4 124.0 125.2 139.2 135.5 149.3 157.2 152.1 158.2 162.9 168.7 175.3 182.3 183.4 203.1 64.8 45.9

Pork mnt 6.2 5.5 5.8 6.6 6.9 6.6 6.3 6.7 8.0 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.6 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.92.31.8

Beef mnt 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 7.5 7.9 7.7 7.7 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.8 13.7 1.7 5.3

Chicken mnt 7.5 7.4 7.8 8.2 8.5 8.7 8.9 8.6 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.4 1.2 1.4

Milk mnt 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.4 13.4 15.0 17.4 18.3 19.1 20.0 20.9 21.8 28.5 0.9 15.2

Global production and consumption CAGR 10-18A 18-50E

Major crops mnt 2141 2207 2193 2290 2267 2466 2542 2494 2719 2673 2697 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 4132 2.6% 1.3%

Soybean mnt 212 261 264 240 269 283 320 314 349 339 368 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 672 4.2% 1.9%

Corn mnt 799 819 832 887 868 990 1016 972 1122 1076 1099 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1935 3.5% 1.8%

Rice (milled equiv.) mnt 448 443 449 467 472 478 479 473 491 495 496 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 592 1.2% 0.6%

Wheat mnt 682 684 647 697 659 715 728 735 757 763 735 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 932 1.6% 0.7%

Major meat mnt 229 232 240 244 250 254 258 259 260 263 268 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 398 1.4% 1.2%

Pork mnt 98 100 103 103 107 109 110 110 110 111 113 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 146 1.2% 0.8%

Chicken mnt 73 74 78 81 83 84 87 89 89 91 92 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 162 2.1% 1.8%

Beef mnt 5859595960616160606263n/an/an/an/an/an/an/a90 0.7% 1.1%

Milk mnt 504 503 513 528 542 546 565 577 584 596 606 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 854 2.1% 1.1%

For crops, 2018 refers to market year from Oct-18 to Sep-19. China as “percentage” of global trade is based on China’s import changes, assuming else unchnaged.

Source: FAO, USDA, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Gao Hua Securities Research

18 July 2019

Goldman Sachs

China Agriculture

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Soft versus hard commodities - persistent and paced growth

The trend ahead in China’s agriculture sector resembles the path of the hard

commodities cycle that began nearly 20 years ago. The incremental demand change due

to China’s domestic S/D balance appears remarkable in the global market in terms of its

impact on pricing. The magnitude of Chinese demand growth in hard commodities over

a relatively short period, supported by strong government policies, has served as a

powerful driver to squeeze supply and thus increase pricing. As an example, from 2000

to 2018, as Chinese steel demand grew from 120mnt to over 800mnt per year, the

country’s demand accounted for over 30% of the global seaborne market for iron ore by

2018A, from 5% when the cycle started. As a result, the global iron ore price has

moved from US$25/t in the early 2000s, to a peak of US$150/t in 2018, and remains

higher than the historical average.

As of today, for most hard commodities, Chinese consumption per capita has reached or

exceeded current and peak levels of developed countries. Chinese steel demand per

capita is currently 520-570kg/person-year, similar to Japan, Germany, and well ahead of

the US. Yet for agriculture demand, the path of growth has been more on track with

peers and has ample room to upgrade going forward, given the nature of the demand.

Animal protein consumption in China is 37.3g of protein per person per day, still lower

than developed Asia by 15-20%, and 30-40% lower than developed western countries.

For soft commodities, although Chinese demand may not be the robust force it was

during hard commodity cycles (e.g., demand for steel and copper), the cumulative

impact on the global agriculture sector will likely be as prevailing and certainly more

persistent in the long run, in our view.

Exhibit 19: Steel demand per capita - China versus peers (2017A)

Red legend cycles are for 2017A and dotted cycle are for 2000A

Exhibit 20: Animal protein consumption per capita - China vs. peers

(2017A)

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

Steel demand per capita (kg/person-year)

GDP per capita (US$/person)

China steel consumption

already breached

developed countries

China

Japan

Korea

Germany

Taiwan

France

India

Brazil

China

Korea

Taiwan

Germany

France

Japan

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

Animal protain per capita (g/person-day)

GDP per capita (US$/person)

China

Japan

Korea

Germany

Taiwan

France

India

Brazil

China animal protein

demand still inline

with global S-curve

Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Source: CEIC, USDA, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

18 July 2019

Goldman Sachs

China Agriculture

The growth path for

Chinese agriculture

demand has been more on

track with peers than hard

commodities and has

ample room to upgrade

going forward in our view,

given the nature of the

demand

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Government policies - “The Number 1 Documents”

“Food security” sits high in priority for China’s government, which is partly reﬂected in

policies published in, “ The Number 1 Documents” each year — the ﬁrst policy

published each year has always

been on China’s agriculture sector. In recent years, the

Chinese government has reiterated the need for basic self-sufﬁciency in cereals and the

absolute safety of food grains, yet in 2019, for the ﬁrst time it stated, “Pro-actively

increase imports of selected agriculture products with tight domestic supply.”

China’s agriculture sector, like those in many other countries, does not amount to a large

contribution to GDP or investment — we estimate the ﬁxed asset investment in primary

industries represents 3.5% of the total China FAI. Based on NBS data, employment in

agriculture-related sectors is 209mn, or 27% of the total work force. Nevertheless,

investment growth in the sector has been above the average growth of FAI since 2004,

when the Chinese government started to put more effort into the sector, triggered by

raising income disparity between urban and rural regions. The policy support seen in the

past several years has ranged from subsidies to government funding of projects and is

partly reﬂected in the sector’s rising contribution of FAI in total, from 1.1% in 2004A to

3.5% in 2018A.

However, despite policy positioning

, challenges remain. The income levels of farmers

remain more depressed than reﬂected in our estimates imposing a key challenge to

increasing supply for the long run. Reported rural incomes have been rising at an

average growth rate of 11.2% over the past several decades, slightly ahead of urban

income growth. However, adjusting for the reported non-farming income of migrant

workers, we estimate farming income per person could have been depressed by as

much as Rmb700-2000 per year in 2007-2010A, with further deterioration of

Rmb200-700 per year in 2017-2018A. Key soft commodity prices in China have

underperformed versus reported income changes in China during the period. For

example, over 2009-2018, disposable incomes for China’s urban and migrant workers

increased by 120-190% versus price changes in rice, soybeans, and pork of ﬂat to 30%

(except for beef which increased 100%). With nearly 40-50% of the soft commodity

prices in China being composed of logistics and distribution costs in wholesale and retail

(based on a 2014 study from the NBS), we think cost inﬂation in non-farming costs has

eroded the income of farmers.

Exhibit 21: State minimum purchases and subsidy - China

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

State minimum purchase price

Corn Rmb/t n.a. 1,480 1,480 1,780 1,960 2,100 2,220 2,220 2,000 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Soybean Rmb/t n.a. 3,700 3,740 3,860 4,000 4,600 4,600 4,800 4,800 4,800 n.a. n.a. n.a.

Wheat Rmb/t 1,400 1,440 1,700 1,747 1,880 2,040 2,240 2,360 2,360 2,360 2,360 2,300 2,240

Rice Rmb/t 1,447 1,587 1,847 1,967 2,247 2,567 2,780 2,853 2,853 2,840 2,773 2,507 2,507

Producer subsidy

Corn-avg Rmb/mu n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 162 168 60 83

Soybean--avg Rmb/mu n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 135 119 220 335 283

Source: NDRC, Ministry of Agriculture, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

18 July 2019

Goldman Sachs

China Agriculture

“Food security” sits high

in priority for China’s

government

However, income levels of

farmers remain more

depressed than reﬂected

in our estimates - imposing

a key challenge to

increasing supply for the

long run

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