Otober 3, 2015
6
MATHEMATICAL PRELIMINARIES REDUX
martingales{
Doob
Polya
urn mo del
Eggenberger
Polya
martingale with respet to the sequene
Martingales.
A sequene of dep endent random variables an b e diÆult to
analyze, but if those variables ob ey invariant onstraints we an often exploit
their struture. In partiular, the \martingale" prop erty, named after a lassi
betting strategy (see exerise 67), proves to b e amazingly useful when it applies.
Joseph L. Doob featured martingales in his pioneering bo ok
Stohasti Pro esses
(New York: Wiley, 1953), and developed their extensive theory.
The sequene
h
Z
n
i
=
Z
0
,
Z
1
,
Z
2
,
: : :
of real-valued random variables is
alled a
martingale
if it satises the ondition
E(
Z
n
+1
j
Z
0
; : : : ; Z
n
) =
Z
n
for all
n
0. (
26
)
(We also impliitly assume, as usual, that the expetations E
Z
n
are well dened.)
For example, when
n
= 0, the random variable E(
Z
1
j
Z
0
) must b e the same as
the random variable
Z
0
(see exerise 63).
Figure 1 illustrates George Polya's famous \urn mo del" [F. Eggenberger
and G. Polya,
Zeitshrift f ur angewandte Math. und Meh.
3
(1923), 279{289℄,
whih is asso iated with a partiularly interesting martingale. Imagine an urn
that initially ontains two balls, one red and one blak. Rep eatedly remove a
randomly hosen ball from the urn, then replae it and ontribute a new ball of
the same olor. The numbers (
r; b
) of red and blak balls will follow a path in
the diagram, with the resp etive lo al probabilities indiated on eah branh.
One an show without diÆulty that all
n
+1 no des on level
n
of Fig. 1 will b e
reahed with the same probability, 1
=
(
n
+ 1). Furthermore, the probability that
a red ball is hosen when going from any level to the next is always 1/2. Thus
the urn sheme might seem at rst glane to b e rather tame and uniform. But
in fat the proess turns out to be full of surprises, b eause any inequity b etween
red and blak tends to perp etuate itself. For example, if the rst ball hosen is
blak, so that we go from (1
;
1) to (1
;
2), the probability is only 2 ln 2
1
:
386
that the red balls will ever overtake the blak ones in the future (see exerise 88).
One goo d way to analyze Polya's pro ess is to use the fat that the ratios
r=
(
r
+
b
) form a martingale. Eah visit to the urn hanges this ratio either to
(
r
+ 1)
=
(
r
+
b
+ 1) (with probability
r=
(
r
+
b
)) or to
r=
(
r
+
b
+ 1) (with probability
b=
(
r
+
b
)); so the expeted new ratio is (
rb
+
r
2
+
r
)
=
((
r
+
b
)(
r
+
b
+ 1)) =
r=
(
r
+
b
),
no dierent from what it was b efore. More formally, let
X
0
= 1, and for
n >
0
let
X
n
be the random variable `[the
n
th ball hosen is red℄'. Then there are
X
0
+
+
X
n
red balls and
X
0
+
+
X
n
+ 1 blak balls at level
n
of Fig. 1;
and the sequene
h
Z
n
i
is a martingale if we dene
Z
n
= (
X
0
+
+
X
n
)
=
(
n
+ 2)
:
(
27
)
In pratie it's usually most onvenient to dene martingales
Z
0
,
Z
1
,
: : :
in terms of auxiliary random variables
X
0
,
X
1
,
: : :
, as we've just done. The
sequene
h
Z
n
i
is said to b e a
martingale with respet to the sequene
h
X
n
i
if
Z
n
is a funtion of (
X
0
; : : : ; X
n
) that satises
E(
Z
n
+1
j
X
0
; : : : ; X
n
) =
Z
n
for all
n
0. (
28
)